The NHC has shifted the official track just a tad westward on this forecast package. Landfall will occur Wednesday somewhere between Vermillion Bay, LA and Destin, FL. Impacts will felt across a wide area, far away from where the center makes landfall, including much of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle and into inland sections of Alabama and Mississippi.
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number 5…Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2020
…LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE YUCATAN
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 305 MI…490 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI…480 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 83.4 West. Zeta has
been meandering or nearly stationary, but a generally northwestward
motion is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Zeta will pass south of western Cuba early
Monday and move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula or the
Yucatan Channel late Monday, move into the southern Gulf of Mexico
on Tuesday, and reach the central Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday.
Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have increased near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Zeta is expected to become a hurricane before it moves
near or over the Yucatan Peninsula late Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with local amounts of 5 inches
possible across Southern Florida and the Keys over the next 2 days,
with isolated storm totals of 8 inches.
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late Monday. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in Western Cuba on
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.