SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT…0300 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 390 MI…625 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 435 MI…695 KM S OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…70 MPH…110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…990 MB…29.24 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Pensacola Bay and Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 91.2 West. Zeta is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected overnight, and a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico overnight. Zeta is forecast to make landfall in
southeastern Louisiana Wednesday afternoon, move close to the
Mississippi coast Wednesday evening, and move across the
southeastern and eastern United States on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Zeta is forecast to become a hurricane again
overnight and reach the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday as a
hurricane on Wednesday afternoon before weakening over the
southeastern United States on Thursday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Along the northern Gulf Coast, the combination of a
dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas
near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground
somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide…
Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island AL…5-8 ft
Port Fourchon LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake
Dauphin Island AL to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…3-5 ft
Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Port Fourchon LA…2-4 ft
AL/FL border to Navarre FL including Pensacola Bay…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain…2-4 ft
Intracoastal City LA to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River
including Vermilion Bay…1-3 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay…1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area on the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning Wednesday morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area on the northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, and tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
Damaging winds, especially in gusts, will spread well inland across
portions of southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday
RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains in advance of Zeta will continue to
expand and move north from the central Gulf Coast tonight through
Wednesday, eventually affecting the Ohio Valley to the central
Appalachians Wednesday night and Thursday. Meanwhile, the core of
heavy rains near Zeta will track from the central Gulf Coast to the
Mid-Atlantic late Wednesday through late Thursday. Rainfall totals
of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are expected
across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and
minor river flooding.
Zeta may produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
across portions of western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula
through the rest of tonight.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday night over southeastern portions of Louisiana and
Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the western Panhandle of Florida.