June 19, 2024

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Weather News & Forecast

Yellow 20% X in GOM Off Tampa… Forms?? Off Coast of Carolina??? Long Range Model Intrigue with BOC or Texas System … Maybe. Can’t See the Future Yet But Hints Hinting..ALL Models Show a HUGE HIGH That’ll Be a Problem In July When Waves Try to Wrap Up & Spin….

4 min read

2 things to see here.

The lil blue Low.

The big red High Pressure.

Some scenarios show this Low sneaking up the coastline, helping to erode the West side of the High and going up to you know where…. where 2023 storms liked to visit on their early Summer cruise. After it passes the High snaps back tight in place. 

Yes, Oh Canada indeed as the song goes and last year’s bumper crop of Atlantic storms favored port of call. This model above is for Sunday, shows a moist tropical convergence zone and a Big Mama of a wave coming off or would that be Big Daddy since that’ll be Father’s Day??   

Does our Low becomes a TD?

Our Low will dump tropical rain.

Does it get a name?

Or does the search for Alberto remain??

🙂

Seriously there will be enough chances down the road to discuss Alberto and all the other 2024 Hurricane Names.  Note in this Sunday image there’s a whole lot of rainfall along the Gulf of Mexico beaches so if that does verify Daddy won’t be golfing nor beaching nor fishing in which case take him to the movies. IF he’s a Storm Chaser let him chase the storm!! Never stop chasing!

The last model or two promised closed isobars in the Gulf of Mexico threatening Texas and Louisiana, now it has backed off to a slug of heavy tropical rain. Next model run it could be back to a Cat 3 hurricane. They are models, their “job” is to offer possible solutions that help forecasters to make wise decisions.  Either way it’s part of the things to do in Disney when young and early in the season we do watch the GFS as it offers very long term solutions. Note below the long range GFS almost makes it to the end of June!!

June 27th a huge High.

Using GFS XRAY vision into the future!

Take it with sea salt!

Following the Model Wars on Twitter or any social media is much like being a child on the Wild Toad’s Ride at Disney. Note I never liked that ride, I was always much more of a Pirates of the Caribbean girl.

EURO from Tropical Tidbits Thursday.

It scoots along the E Coast …. 

Then down the tropical road…

A week from now.

BOC Low appears again, again on the EURO.

Very inline with what we would expect for June.

Lastly below the Canadian.

It’s joined the let’s make a Cane in GOM club.

Not most reliable but sniffs things out often.

What is conspicuous on these models is a HUGE HIGH PRESSURE area that wiggles back and forth a bit in latitude and none of these models crown a westbound tropical wave with a name, shear at the entrance to the Caribbean is infamous this time of year! Infact, there’s hardly any development from the ongoing, steady wave train riding beneath the large high pressure zone. And, this is right in line with June CLIMO In that we watch for “pop up” surprise systems close in …on either side of Florida forming as well as the BOC usually and the GOM sometimes. Waves come and go like Uber drivers each car a bit different, each driver with their own unique personality. Each wave juices up the atmopshere a bit more and eventually down the road, probably in June this year if things continue as they are now one of those waves that area easily getting across will find a way of wrapping into a closed Low and maybe it’ll get a name.

But for now the name of the game is watching Florida Rains and what may become a system off SE Coastline. If so, pay close attention to the weather forecast for Carolina beaches. And, maybe, just maybe something will form in GOM or more likely the BOC as every year usually, but not always, has one early BOC system no one remembers in August. 

I’ll be offline through Thursday enjoying summery treats such as Edward’s Cheesecake at my house and fancier, homemade ones at friends homes. Making a slow cooked brisket with some sort of BBQ sauce on it, haven’t decided I have to kind of “feel it” and I’m moody but I do have some Jimmy Buffett sauce hidden away that I might mix up with something else…. mostly sweet, a little spice is nice. 

While off on my two day holiday from watching models please follow all my buddies such as Mike from Spaghetti Models and Dabuh and if Levi Cowan makes a video on Tropical Tidbits please watch it! Nothing can be finer in the Carolinas than watching Chick, Allan Huffman and Mark Sudduth as they really, really know the area and it’s coastal lows and named storms. As for Texas Larry Cosgrove is awesome and Thor is there so enjoy his videos and send him some love.  I left out a lot of people obviously, but if you follow me on Twitter you know who I respect and who I joke around with…. 

I’ll update today’s blog with info from CSU
due out later today.

Gotta go shopping for Whipped Cream.

You know…for the cheesecakes!!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter

Twitter mostly weather.

Insta…whatever.

Remember…. 

Lows that start in Carolinas can often sail past Boston.

Just saying….

But Context WXR will be all over that !!!

noreply@blogger.com (BobbiStorm)

2024-06-11 12:30:00

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