Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated. If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts. Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark. The F5 Data maps I post as well for severe weather, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription). Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me. Please keep in mind, even when the hurricane season ends, I have to keep up on these site subscriptions for severe weather and winter weather. To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page. Any help you provide is immensely appreciated! Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the information I use in my forecasts.
DONATIONS NEEDED AND APPRECIATED
Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
This update will be based on a short range forecast, out to the morning of 17 JAN.
Analysis of the global models this evening indicate another of area of low pressure should begin developing IVO northern Illinois and Minnesota by Thursday afternoon. This low should meander around the vicinity of the Great Lakes before beginning to move eastward on Saturday morning. The low appears to remain relatively weak initially, however as it approaches the NE region, it begins to deepen, with an increase in surface wind speed, and seas increasing off the U.S. east coast in the extreme W. Atlantic up to around 20 ft. As the increase in wind and seas occur, small craft may wish to remain in port, and commercial shipping should avoid the area of heavy seas if possible.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE WIND FORECAST
ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST
As this low progresses over the next 5 days, cold temperatures will remain over a large portion of the central and eastern U.S. By the end of the period, much colder surface temperatures will be on order, with much colder air once again pushing south into the Florida Peninsula. This low will also be responsible for more snowfall, which as of tonight’s analysis, seems to be limited to portions of the N.E., with the heaviest totals accumulating over the New England areas of Vermont, New Hampshire, and a portion of NW Maine.
ECMWF AND GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ECMWF AND GFS KUCHERA TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST