Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
This update will be based on a short term forecast for the next 96 hours, out to the morning of 10 JAN.
Based on analysis this evening of the recent run of MSLP normalized anomaly maps, another low pressure system is forecast to develop over the Gulf coast states, beginning late tomorrow afternoon. This system will track across LA., MS., AL., and a portion of FL. and GA. Surface winds should increase along the coastal areas as this system moves toward the east. This low should exit off the coast of SC. and GA. by Friday morning. once the center of this low reaches the coast, it will begin to deepen, and will briefly become a coastal storm. By Saturday, the low will begin to move away from the coast and continue to deepen. As this occurs, surface winds will become strong as the system strengthens near the coast, and cover a greater area as it moves away from the coast. Strongest winds will be confined to a moderate area offshore and near the center of the low, and will cause some very high seas which could be dangerous to commercial shipping. Areas effected by onshore winds could see some minor beach erosion and possible minor flooding along the immediate coast at high tide. Small craft are urged to remain in port.
MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY MAPS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS
SURFACE WINDS FORECAST (MPH)
ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST
The system will be responsible for bringing some snow to Arkansas, and then east into the Tennessee Valley and into a portion of the Mid Atlantic over a portion of Virginia and North Carolina. Accumulated snowfall totals do not appear to be too great during the forecast period. Precipitation over the Gulf coast states and FL. should be in the form of rain.
ECMWF AND GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTAL FORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BY PRECIPITATION TYPE
Colder temperatures will be in order for most of the U. S., however I do not expect Arctic air during the period. Much colder minimum temperatures seem to be in order just after the 10th of JAN.
ECMWF AND GFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST