Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).
This synopsis may seem short, however I believe you will grasp the message. I will have the various maps posted after the total synopsis. I know I’m only posting once a week, however I am not ignoring any of you. With work going like it is, and pushing myself each evening during the hurricane season, I need not push myself in the off season, in order to avoid burning out by the time this hurricane season begins.
Conditions with the current winter storm / low pressure sitting off the U.S. east coast should begin to taper off during the next 24 hours, as this low begins to move northward. Fairly brisk winds and cold temperatures will still exist until then, along with some continued snowfall over the NE and New England areas. By late Wed. evening to very early Thu. morning, another area begins to take shape near the center of the country, starting out as a trof of low pressure which originates over Canada, and extends south into the central U.S. By Thu. afternoon, the trof splits, and an area of low pressure develops near Illinois, and then swings NEWD over the Great Lakes region, deepening in the process. Snow will once again begin to fall over the north central states, and spread into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley region, and the northern tier of states. Once again, as associated with these type of systems, winds will increase as it deepens, and as it pushes NWD, the tightening pressure gradient will create stronger winds and high wave heights off the U.S. East coast.
Colder temperatures will linger into FL. during the rest of the week, with somewhat of a warm up by the weekend. As this next system approaches and passes over the Great Lakes area, and strong high pressure building in directly behind, some very bitter Arctic air will push in, however the worst of this air seems to be limited to over the northern one third of the U.S., with the most bitter cold over the upper midwest and Great Lakes. Being this is for the 4 – 5 day period, ending FEB. 7, some conditions could change. To stay advised, it would be a good idea to visit the NWS watch and warning display map.
The following forecast maps are from the GFS global model, out to 12Z FEB. 7, 2021:
GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY ANIMATED GIF
GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS ANIMATED GIF
GFS SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANIMATED GIF
GFS SURFACE WIND FORECAST ANIMATED GIF
ECMWF WAVE HEIGHT AND DIRECTION FORECAST ANIMATED GIF
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED)
Use the following link to see your area forecast. Once on the site, type in your zip code in the green box:
WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS