WINTER WEATHER UPDATE SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 28, 2020…10:55 EST

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good day!
Analysis of the MSLP anomalies maps from the ECMWF and GFS indicate an area of low pressure will develop along the Gulf coast states sometime tomorrow morning.  This low is forecast to move in a general NNE direction over the next 72 hours.  This system will move quickly, and should be over the Mid Atlantic area sometime Monday afternoon, and continue on a NNE direction, and be over the NE / New England area on Tuesday afternoon.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY MAPS




GFS GIF LOOP

ECMWF GIF LOOP

As the low moves northward, it will intensify and surface winds will increase.  Based on my analysis of the NAM and GFS 1000 – 500 MB thickness forecast, as the flow strengthens, and winds blow over the Great Lakes out of the NW, snowfall should begin sometime early on Monday over portions of Southern Illinois, and them into the Ohio valley thereafter.  Based on the direction of the forecast surface winds, snow will most likley be of the Lake Effect type.  The following are projected snowfall totals out to 96 hours from the ECMWF and GFS global models:
ECMWF

GFS

Surface winds will increase as the system approaches the Mid Atlantic area, with the strongest winds remaining East of the low center, and offshore.  The offshore winds are forecast to reach minimal tropical storm strength, with a great increase in wave and sea heights.  Given the wind and wave direction, some flooding could occur along the immediate coast.  Based on this, residents along the Mid Atlantic coast, northward, should remain away from beaches, and small craft should remain inport.  Please click on the following NWS HAZARD AND WARNING map for information on any NWS warnings and statements that may affect your area.  First, click the map, then when the map reloads, click on your area of interest.
NWS WARNINGS MAP

ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST

WAVEWATCH FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS


This system will also draw some extremely cold Polar air south, all the way into FL.  Both the AO (Arctic Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific – North American) oscillation indicate this cold pattern.  Wen the AO goes negative, and the PNA goes positive, this generally represents a cold pattern for the Eastern and SE United States.  The following are the teleconnections forecast, and minimum temperatures forecast for Wednesday, Dec. 02, 2020 from both the ECMWF and GFS global models.
AO FORECAST


PNA FORECAST


ECMWF AND GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST DEC. 02, 2020




The following is the frost/freeze outlook which is linked.  Click for updated information:
WSI FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

The following is the current wind chill map from the Weather Channel, linked:
WEATHER CHANNEL WIND CHILL MAP

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST