February 22, 2024

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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE / POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 03, 2024…1:35 P.M. EST

6 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

Greetings everyone!

This forecast will be in regard to the area of low pressure forecast to develop late Friday afternoon /early Friday evening IVO of where the current system is now seen developing in visible / ir satellite loop imagery this morning.  The low is forecast to continue developing as it moves eastward across the Florida Panhandle, Alabama and Georgia.  This low however is forecast to remain closer to the U.S. east coast, becoming a Nor’easter affecting the New England and Northeast areas of the U.S.  As the system approaches the Florida Panhandle region, onshore winds of 30 – 35 mph may be experienced.  Once the low begins to clear the areas mentioned and centers over the Georgia area, winds just off of the Mid Atlantic and SE coasts, could reach minimal tropical storm force over the open waters.  As the low begins its ENE trek, surface winds along the coast from NJ northward, could reach minimal tropical storm force at the coast with gust to strong tropical storm force, to possible minimal hurricane force. Surface wind speeds and gusts forecast maps, are posted within the following graphics.  Wave heights near the NE coast could attain heights of 6 – 8 ft,  over the Gulf of Maine 7 – 10 ft and offshore over the open Atlantic IVO 35.0N – 40.0N;65.0W – 70.0W could attain heights of 16 – 20 ft.  Please note the time stamps in the upper right of the animated model graphics.

Precipitation amounts do not appear heavy at the moment with this system.  The first set of precipitation and snowfall total maps indicate approximate totals from our developing system today.  The second set represents approximate totals accumulated from both systems.

Beginning late Sunday into early Monday (Jan 7 – Jan 8), a very large low pressure system begins in the four corners region of the U.S., moves down into Texas, then heads NE to over the Great Lakes region.  This storm will be a more powerful, with both the GFS and ECMWF in agreement on track and intensity, indicating a peak over the Great Lakes region of 977 mb – 975 mb (28.85 in – 28.79 in.).  This is forecast to be a decent snow maker for a portion of the Great Lakes region / NE and New England area.  I’ll have a more detailed forecast on this either Sunday evening, or Monday morning.
GOMEX IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
GOMEX.IR
GOMEX.vis

ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAP ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_norm_anom-1704240000-1704499200-1704672000-40
ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-east-wnd10m_stream_mph-1704153600-1704283200-1704412800-40
ECMWF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-east-gust_mph-1704240000-1704499200-1704672000-40
WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST ASSOCIATED WITH SECOND SYSTEM
ww3-east-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1704261600-1704499200-1704672000-40

ECMWF AND GFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL (FIRST SYSTEM)
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_precip_inch-4412800
gfs-deterministic-east-total_precip_inch-4412800
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-4412800
gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-4412800
NAM FIRST SYSTEM
nam-218-all-east-total_precip_inch-4412800

nam-218-all-east-total_snow_kuchera-4412800
ECMWF AND GFS ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AND SNOWFALL (BOTH SYSTEMS)
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_precip_inch-4672000

gfs-deterministic-east-total_precip_inch-4672000
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-4672000
gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-4672000
Elsewhere, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) a LOW (15%) probability for severe weather in the day 6 outlook.  Analysis of forecast surface maps indicate this may be associated with the larger low pressure area that develops around the 8th of this month.  As more accurate updates of forecast parameters materialize, I will be including this in my updates.  When this becomes the 3 day outlook, my forecasts will focus on the severe weather threat.
SPC DAY 6 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
day6prob

From the SPC:
Low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward in earnest on Day 6/Monday over the northern Gulf of Mexico as another upper trough/low digs eastward over the southern Plains and eventually ejects across the lower/mid MS Valley. With a prior frontal passage occurring, there is still some uncertainty with how far inland rich low-level moisture will be able to advance. Still, most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present ahead of a deepening surface low and related dryline/cold front from parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast states beginning Monday afternoon and continuing through Monday night. With strong low-level and deep-layer shear expected, both supercells and line segments capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail may occur. No changes have been made to the 15% severe area for Monday and Monday night that extends from parts of east TX into LA, southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle, as latest guidance continues to suggest this region will have the best chance of boundary-layer destabilization and surface-based convection.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area. 
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-03 18:29:34

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