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WINTER WEATHER UPDATE / POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 20, 2023…11:30 A.M. EST

5 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

Greetings everyone!
To save a little time and graphics space, I will be using the ECMWF forecast maps only, for the developing storm system, with the exception of snowfall total to which the GFS will be included.

Another winter system is forecast to develop in the form of a large area of low pressure initializing over the central portion of the U.S. approximately the morning of Dec. 24th.  The low will drift slightly south, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, before moving northward, then NEWD over the Great Lakes region and NE portion of the U.S.  This should bring some snowfall over portions of those areas, later in the forecast period.  By the end of the forecast period around the 29th and 30th, most of the country will be under some very cold minimum temperatures, with a good portion of the country experiencing lows of freezing or below, with 40’s extending down into Florida.  As you’re watching the animations of the temperature forecast maps remember, minimum temperatures occur at 12Z.  Snowfall totals over the Great Lakes area and NEUS do not appear extreme at the moment.  Current forecast surface wind speeds appear to remain in the 15 – 25 mph range, with the exception along the U.S. east coast where winds could attain tropical storm force due to a tight pressure gradient from a high over the Atlantic, and the forecast low over the CONUS.
ECMWF  MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAP ANIMATIONS
ecmwf-deterministic-central-mslp_norm_anom-1703030400-1703419200-1703851200-40
ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp_norm_anom-1703030400-1703419200-1703851200-40
ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-central-wnd10m_stream_mph-1703030400-1703505600-1703851200-40
ecmwf-deterministic-east-wnd10m_stream_mph-1703030400-1703419200-1703851200-40
ECMWF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-central-gust_mph-1703030400-1703419200-1703851200-40
ecmwf-deterministic-east-gust_mph-1703030400-1703419200-1703851200-40
ECMWF 10 DAY AND WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_precip_inch-3851200
p168i
ECMWF AND GFS ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL 10 DAY
ecmwf-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-3894400.this
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-3894400.this
gfs-deterministic-central-total_snow_kuchera-3916000.THIS
gfs-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-3916000.THIS
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANIMATIONS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-1703030400-1703030400-1703894400-40
ecmwf-deterministic-east-t2m_f-1703030400-1703030400-1703894400-40
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-3851200
ecmwf-deterministic-east-t2m_f-3851200
Elsewhere, the CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance model is currently suggesting a low (slight) probability for severe weather over a portion of  the south central U.S. on Christmas.  The SPC outlook as of current, suggests that the probability for an outlook on day 5 is too low at the moment.  I will be monitoring this the remainder of the week, and will update on any probable severe weather threat.
CIPS ANALOG BASED SEVERE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE OUTLOOK (ALL THREATS)
CIPS .analog
HAIL
CPIS.analoghail

WIND
CIPS.analogWIND
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area. 
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.RADR.US
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-20 16:20:30

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