ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided. Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion. When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented. After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly. This will have an effect on my actual forecast. Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org
To save a little time and graphics space, I will be using the ECMWF forecast maps only, for the developing storm system, with the exception of snowfall total to which the GFS will be included.
Another winter system is forecast to develop in the form of a large area of low pressure initializing over the central portion of the U.S. approximately the morning of Dec. 24th. The low will drift slightly south, tapping moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, before moving northward, then NEWD over the Great Lakes region and NE portion of the U.S. This should bring some snowfall over portions of those areas, later in the forecast period. By the end of the forecast period around the 29th and 30th, most of the country will be under some very cold minimum temperatures, with a good portion of the country experiencing lows of freezing or below, with 40’s extending down into Florida. As you’re watching the animations of the temperature forecast maps remember, minimum temperatures occur at 12Z. Snowfall totals over the Great Lakes area and NEUS do not appear extreme at the moment. Current forecast surface wind speeds appear to remain in the 15 – 25 mph range, with the exception along the U.S. east coast where winds could attain tropical storm force due to a tight pressure gradient from a high over the Atlantic, and the forecast low over the CONUS.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST MAP ANIMATIONS
ECMWF SURFACE WINDS FORECAST
ECMWF SURFACE WIND GUSTS FORECAST
ECMWF 10 DAY AND WPC 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
ECMWF AND GFS ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL 10 DAY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ANIMATIONS AND COLDEST TEMPERATURE FORECAST
Elsewhere, the CIPS Analog-Based Severe Probability Guidance model is currently suggesting a low (slight) probability for severe weather over a portion of the south central U.S. on Christmas. The SPC outlook as of current, suggests that the probability for an outlook on day 5 is too low at the moment. I will be monitoring this the remainder of the week, and will update on any probable severe weather threat.
CIPS ANALOG BASED SEVERE PROBABILITY GUIDANCE OUTLOOK (ALL THREATS)
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area. Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)
NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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