February 26, 2024

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WINTER WEATHER / SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 26, 2023…9:55 A.M. EST

4 min read

ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.  Keep in mind, if a forecast doesn’t exactly pan out, remember, the atmosphere is fluid in motion.  When models are being analyzed, that’s just one run, and I have to go with what is presented.  After that, models don’t update again for another 4 – 6 hours, so, what happens between that time is unknown, and forecast conditions can change slightly, to greatly.  This will have an effect on my actual forecast.  Unless otherwise noted, satellite imagery is provided through Weathernerds.org

Greetings everyone!

I will be taking some more time off for the holiday, and plan on resuming forecasts on Jan. 01, 2024.

Pulling up models this morning, there are only slight changes in the ongoing and upcoming pattern over the next 72 hours, and was discussed in my previous update on Dec 21.  There is no threat as of yet for severe weather during this week, as per the Storm Prediction Center.  I did however want to briefly touch on another phenomenon.  From Jan. 01 – Jan. 08, a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event is forecast to reload.  This COULD be a major SSW event, as temperatures at 10m are forecast to increase by a little over 50C in a 6 day period.  At the moment, it is unknown if this will disrupt the Polar Vortex enough to allow Arctic air to plunge southward over the U. S.  Currently, forecast temperature maps do indicate a majority of the U. S. will experience freezing, to below freezing minimum temperatures on the morning of Jan. 04.

I will be monitoring this during my time off, and will update on this, and any significant winter weather that may be in the works after this week.  As always, if a threat for severe weather does make its way into the forecast, I will have an update for you.

The following graphics indicate the temperature and height anomalies at 10 mb for the time period shown by the models:
ECMWF AND GEFS 10 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4412800
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t10_anom-4434400
ECMWF AND GEFS 10 MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4412800
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z10_anom-4434400
ECMWF AND GEFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR JAN. 04, 2024
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-4369600
ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f-4369600
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-central-t2m_f-4369600
gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_f-4369600
SSW AND POLAR VORTEX ARTICLE FROM WIKIPEDIA
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area. 
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
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RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE)
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You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



palmharborforecastcenter

2023-12-26 14:52:56

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