January 15, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED DEC. 09, 2020…8:15 EST

4 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

Good evening,
Analysis this evening of the ECMWF, and GFS global models, and the NAM  regional model indicates an area of low pressure forecast to develop near the center of the U.S. in approximately 48 hours.  Models are in good agreement of this low  moving toward the NE over the next 72 hours, moving over the Great Lakes by early Sunday morning.  This low is forecast to be much weaker than the coastal storm experienced by the Eastern U.S. a few days ago, with minimum pressure forecast to be around 998 – 1000 mb.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY GIF LOOP

GFS

NAM

Analysis of 1000 – 500 mb thickness maps indicates snowfall may begin in about 60 – 72 hours over the upper Midwest, and shift eastward in a narrow swath to over the Great Lakes region.  The following are the ECMWF and GFS projected snowfall totals for the 72 hour period from 60 hours in the forecast period, out to 132 hours.
ECMWF KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTAL LOOP

GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTAL LOOP

The following are forecast temperatures during the next 5 days from the ECMWF and GFS global models, with minimum temperatures occurring at 12Z each day:
ECMWF LOOP


GFS LOOP


Both the ECMWF and GFS Ensemble members are indicating that the AO (Arctic Oscillation) may be going strongly negative in approximately 7 – 10 days.  This could allow for more extremely cold polar air to push south, with more cold and below normal temperatures pushing into the Florida Peninsula.  I will be addressing this as we get further out into the forecast period, to see if forecast conditions remain the same.
ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE ARCTIC OSCILLATION FORECAST

The following is the frost / freeze forecast map from WSI for tomorrow morning

The following NWS hazard and warning map will provide you information for your area from your local NWS office.  Please click on the image, and after the map loads, click on your area.
NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY (LINKED)

The following radar loop is linked.  IF the map does not update automatically, click the image for the current radar loop:
INTELLICAST RADAR ANIMATION

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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