March 4, 2024

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WINTER WEATHER BRIEF / HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION GUIDE…ISSUED JAN. 15, 2024…10:45 A.M. EST

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good day everyone!

This update will be regarding the next major area of low pressure to affect the NE by the 19th and 20th, but will mostly address Hurricane Preparedness.  I wanted to make this available well in advance, prior to the start of the 2024 hurricane season.  I highly recommend you save this somehow and review preparation and evacuation steps in order to put together a preparation plan prior to June 01.  IF forecast conditions materialize (in which the majority of climate modeling has been consistent), we will most likely be in store for a bona fide, well above average season.   I noticed some discrepancies in information contained in the NOAA 2011 guide regarding when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are issued, and in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  The correct ones will be posted for you.

Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models, over the next 5 days, an area of lower pressure should worm it’s way up the east coast from the GOMEX area (Miller A system), just offshore, and become a Nor’easter / offshore low.  As this approaches, an increase in surface winds, wind gusts, and increasing seas will occur, along with more wet weather and snow.   Much colder air (Arctic air) is slated to dive southward with temperatures in the 30’s to 40’s reaching central Florida.  The following animations are from the ECMWF, and run from today out to 5 days in the forecast period.  Keep in mind when viewing forecast temperatures, the minimum temperatures occur at 12Z.  A weaker low does pass by on Tue. / Wed., but is weaker.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_norm_anom-1705276800-1705276800-1705752000-40

gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp_norm_anom-1705298400-1705298400-1705752000-40
ECMWF SURFACE WIND AND GUSTS FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-east-wnd10m_stream_mph-1705276800-1705492800-1705752000-40
ecmwf-deterministic-east-gust_mph-1705276800-1705492800-1705752000-40
ECMWF 5 DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
ecmwf-deterministic-east-total_snow_kuchera-1705276800-1705287600-1705752000-40
ECMWF WAVE HEIGHTS
ecmwf-wave-east-sig_height_wave_dir-1705276800-1705492800-1705752000-40
ECMWF FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ecmwf-deterministic-east-t2m_f-1705276800-1705276800-1705752000-40
HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS SECTION
The following is information regarding Tropical Storm / Hurricane watches and warnings, and the revised Saffir – Simpson hurricane wind scale:

Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 – 73 mph or greater) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.

Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.

CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

I HIGHLY recommend saving the following information, for when the time comes.

The following graphics / guides contain information on hurricane preparedness…PLEASE CLICK each graphic to read the guide.  In regard to stocking up on food and water, it is recommended that you increase the supply from 3 days to 5 – 7 days.  You should stock up on non perishables and have 1 gallon of drinking water per person, per day.  In addition, when a hurricane watch is issued for your area, immediately set your refrigerator / freezer to the maximum setting.  Avoid opening the doors.  IF you need to get something out, do it quickly and close the door right away.

NATIONAL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
Screenshot 2024-01-12 at 15-24-48 National Hurricane Preparedness

NOAA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS GUIDE 2011
prepguide
As you scroll through the following document, under the topic prepare for hurricanes (click on the topic), other informational links will be seen highlighted in green.
HURRICANE READYPREPAREDNESS FOR YOUR BOAT
hurricane-resource-center
EVACUATING INDIVIDUALS WITH DISABILITIES
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TAKE YOUR PETS
pets

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-01-15 15:41:11

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