January 27, 2023

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WINTER STORM / SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENT SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JAN. 22, 2023…7:20 P.M. EST

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Based on my analysis of the global models ECMWF and GFS, an area of low pressure is progged to develop early Tuesday over the Texas Gulf coast, and move toward the NE during the week.  As the system moves toward the NE, it will deepen, and is forecast to reach the New England and NE states late on Thursday morning to early afternoon.  As this low reaches the extreme eastern portion of the NE, it is currently progged to attain a pressure of 984 – 981 mb.  This system is forecast to bring a swath of snow from the south central states, all the way to the NE states during the next 120 hours (5 days in the forecast period), from 12Z this morning (7:00 a.m. EST).  Currently, the heaviest of the snowfall is slated to be over the Ohio valley, New England, and the NE states.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-1674388800-1674561600-1674820800-80
gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp_anom-1674388800-1674561600-1674820800-80
ECMWF AND GFS KUCHERA SNOWFALL TOTALS 120 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-4820800
ecmwf-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-4820800
gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_kuchera-4820800
gfs-deterministic-ne-total_snow_kuchera-4820800
ECMWF 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ANIMATION
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-total_snow_kuchera-1674388800-1674399600-1674820800-80
Temperatures will once again begin to drop as this system passes, and will become very cold again with minimum temperatures during the week becoming coldest around Saturday morning (as of current model runs).
ECMWF MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST 28 JAN 2023
ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f-4907200
However, based on analysis, as we get further into the forecast period, this does not appear to be the worst of the cold air.  Analysis of the stratospheric maps at the 10 mb level indicates we are now beginning the process of a SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event.  Based on forecast temperatures out to 10 and 12 days into the period, some extremely frigid Arctic air is forecast to plunge south into the U. S.  AS the SSW event becomes more consolidated over the N. Pole and Arctic region, it should trigger the Polar Vortex, which will allow for some extremely cold air to spill down from the Arctic regions, and appear to affect the north central portion of the U. S.  Looking at forecast minimum temperatures, my best guess at the moment would be air will rush down from Siberia.  Given the forecast temperatures are 10 – 12 days out in the forecast period, they are most likely to modify, and I will try to update as we get into the 5 – 7 day time-frame in the forecast period.  The following maps from both the ECMWF and GFS global models show the warmer stratospheric anomalies (10 mb level), and height anomalies.
  Please note time stamps on graphics.
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4820800
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5252800
ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4820800
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5252800
GFS
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-4820800
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-t10_anom-5252800
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-4820800
gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z10_anom-5252800
The following minimum temperatures are from the ECMWF and GFS 12Z run for days 10 and 12 in the period
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-central-t2m_f-5252800
GFSgfs-deterministic-ncentus-t2m_f-5425600
Again, I will try to keep tabs on things, and will try to update probable mid to late week.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-01-23 00:12:15

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