Looks like we’re waking up to cloudy skies this morning, and that will mark the beginning of a slight change in the pattern for us. On the morning map (850/700/300 mb isobars/850 mb winds/water vapor/temps) you can see high pressure ridging down the east side of the Appalachian’s and even weakly extending all the way to MS/AR/LA.
Today through Thursday
As the short term period begins, surface high pressure remains positioned east of the forecast area and over the spine of the Appalachian’s. As a result, prolonged easterly low-level off of the western Atlantic continues to promote moisture advection into north and central Georgia. The northern fringe of a slow-moving easterly wave propagating across the Florida panhandle and south Georgia is also bringing abundant moisture further north into the forecast area. Dewpoints are expected to increase into the mid to upper 60s across north and central Georgia by Wednesday afternoon. Daytime heating is expected to allow for the development of scattered convection in central Georgia during the afternoon today, warranting chance PoP’s across that area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not currently anticipated, but the potential will continue to be monitored.
High pressure will begin to wedge into the area starting Thursday morning and persist through the short term period. With humid and unstable conditions remaining across the area, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated once again in central Georgia on Thursday afternoon. Temperatures will be above climatological normals throughout the short term period. Afternoon highs will be mainly between 5-10 degrees above average today and Thursday, ranging from the upper 70’s to mid 80’s. Because of the abundant atmospheric moisture, morning lows will be as much as 12-16 degrees above average each day, in the upper 50’s and 60’s across the forecast area.
Thursday Night through Tuesday
As the extended forecast period begins looks like we will be in the beginning stages of a pattern change with a more unsettled pattern coming into play. Will see isolated to scattered pops across the region through the middle of next week with showers and thunderstorms expected. Right now were not seeing any good chances for severe storms, just general thunder as of now. The weakening surface high pressure ridge centered over the Carolinas keeps GA in moist East to Southeasterly flow through the weekend. PoP’s slowly increase as deeper moisture increases with the best chances of precip moving in Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front to the northwest will not make progress into the area but instead stall over the Tennessee Valley through the beginning of next week. Moisture ahead of this front will push into the state which will also aid in increasing chances of precipitation through the end of the period.
With no cold front sweeping through the region, temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal through day 7.
The next 7 days will only bring light amounts of rainfall if you get any at all, since there is no real mechanism to produce any rain. However….
…there are discrepancies between the GFS and Euro through next Wednesday morning, so don’t put away the umbrella just yet.
We’re not seeing any real cold air intrusions through the end of the month, but both the GFS and Euro, including both of their ensembles, are seeing some cooler air close to the last day of the month. Since that is about 10 days away, it is a little too far off to have any confidence despite the agreements.
Tomorrow we’ll look at our rain chances for the weekend to see if anything has changed. That’s pretty much it. With no weather to speak of, I’ll go tend to the “Honey Do” list. 🙂
Hope everyone has a GREAT Wednesday!