LIKE SUMMER: Today will be a another warm, humid day for Alabama. With a partly sunny sky, temperatures reach the mid 80s this afternoon… the average high for Birmingham on May 3 is 79. Most of the day will be dry, but we will mention a chance of scattered showers and storms tonight as a weakening cold front approaches. Nothing widespread or severe.
Then, for tomorrow, look for a mix of sun and clouds, and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible… mostly during the afternoon and evening hours, as the front stalls out near the Tennessee border. The high tomorrow will be in the mid 80s, and the chance of any one spot seeing a shower tonight and tomorrow is 40-45 percent. Higher probabilities are over the northern half of the state.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Most of the day Thursday will be dry with highs in the 80s again. Then, an approaching front will bring showers and storms into the state late Thursday night into the day Friday. SPC has defined a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for much of North and West Alabama in their “Day 3” outlook, which runs through 7am CT Friday. For now they have not defined a risk beyond 7am Friday due to model uncertainty.
The broad window for heavier thunderstorms will run from midnight Thursday night through 6:00 p.m. Friday; we should be able to narrow this down more tomorrow as we get within range of the high resolution models. The main threat with the heavier storms during this period will come from strong straight line winds and hail… the tornado threat looks low for now based on forecast wind profiles.
MOTHERS DAY WEEKEND: Dry air settles into the state Friday night following the frontal passage, and the weekend will feature sunny days and fair nights. The high Saturday will be in the 77-81 degree range, followed by mid 80s Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: A strong upper ridge builds over the Deep South, and much of the week looks dry. Temperatures could very well touch 90 degrees by mid-week under the ridge, our hottest weather so far this year… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 1999: There were 63 tornadoes in Oklahoma, making this the worst outbreak ever to strike the state. In Central Oklahoma alone, eight individual supercell thunderstorms produced 57 tornadoes. Bridge Creek, Moore and southern parts of the Oklahoma City Metro area were hit the hardest. When it was near Moore, Oklahoma, a truck-mounted Doppler radar measured a wind speed of 318 mph, the highest ever observed in a tornado. This tornado killed 36 people. To the north in Kansas, an F4 tornado tracked 24 miles through Sumner and Sedgwick Counties, killing 6, injuring 154, and causing $146 million in damages.
ON THIS DATE IN 2009: A derecho moved across Central Alabama, which produced widespread and long-lived straight line wind damage (associated with a fast moving squall line). There was significant damage in several counties from the Mississippi state line to the Georgia state line. Also a few tornadoes touched with within the line.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
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