Updated 11 AM Fiona Moving West … So Many Questions. NHC Cone & Models Pull Fiona North… BUT…Where and When? Hurricane History Lessons Today from Dorian & Matthew at the Same Point on the Map…4 min read
11 AM from the NHC
Cone wide on the 5th day.
Narrow in the short term.
I suggest you read the discussion.
Above it shows models disagree on speed.
Forward speed impacts track.
NHC favors “less-intense scenarios”
Yet they hold the door open to it being stronger.
As in currently stronger.
Recon will get facts.
Fiona not properly aligned.
But carrying powerful TS winds.
Moisture and headed into the Islands.
Interactive Cone shows Warnings.
Warnngs will be extended West as Fiona moves West.
A collage of images.
Take Fiona as a whole package.
Yes TS winds to East of Center.
It’s bringing TS winds to the Islands.
Westbound… as you can see on Mimic (orange)
My thoughts haven’t changed and we basically are watching, tracking, studying Fiona as well as the steering currents that often ebb and flow much like Fiona. The Atmosphere is a River flowing and often surprising us with a stronger than average cold front in September and sometimes part of that front collapses. Sometimes the High builds in stronger and shear relaxes and other times everything goes as smooth as clockwork. That means you can totally rely on the forecast verifying, but currently the NHC is extremely honest in their discussion on how low confidence there is at the different factors yet despite the different factors they have to make a Cone and put out a forecast and that’s their job. They do a good job. Yes, sometimes a forecast is busted but as a famous meteorologist once told me “usually it’s the big ones that bust the forecast” and currently we have a Tropical Storm and Fiona isn’t there yet.
Keep watching. Keep reading. I’ll upload the jagged sort of video I did this morning while watching the Mimic, a loop that like the Water Vapor, often foretells changes down the road that will impact a storm or that reinforce a forecast. I’ll leave the 11 AM update with a great Tweet by Chick in NC. Well said. Stay tuned… I’ll update later this afternoon with the 5 PM and or if something changes.
I’ll add in NC has a history of too many bad F storms…
… something else he mentioned.
Fran Florence to name 2 …
Keep reading, thanks.
I’ll change up the song later so check back later!
And remember to follow me on Twitter @Bobbistorm
Putting this at the top not the bottom… This is the Bottom Line from the NHC… Fiona moving WEST at 13 MPH packing winds of 50 MPH and it’s forecast to make a turn to the right (N) later in the forecast period. The cone is below and you can compare and contrast it with the one that will come out at 11 AM.
Everyone talking about possible tracks online and offline as some people talk about the tropics around the dinner table or at Starbucks or Chili’s not just online. For this forecast above everything has to validate and if not there is some subtle change in track and or intensity.
1. Forward Speed impacts track as it needs to catch that front…
2. Intensity because a stronger storm will want to pull North faster vs a weaker storm West.
3. Islands in the stream: Direct hit on Hispaniola or avoiding it somehow.
4. Alignment of Fiona with her mid level center not aligned (due to shear) with it’s center.
What do we learn from recent history? Things can change fast. Below is an example and I am NOT saying Fiona could explode like Dorian, I am just showing how at this same point in time there were many questions on Dorian and Dorian was fighting shear and weak. Just a lesson in Hurricane History.
That “ball of convection” was Dorian.
Let’s look at Matthew in the same area.
Matthew looked better BUT….
Convection sheared East of Center.
Very obvious in image above!
NHC was all about the SHEAR!
But something changed.
Models showed smooth steady movement.
Totally busted forecast.
Busted forecasts happen less than you think.
Note how long Matthew stayed down by SA.
Barely moved. Intensified into a MAJOR
Despite shear, despite nearness of land.
Matthew is that exception to the rule.
For now Fiona has been stubborn.
And y’all know how I feel about stubborn storms.
Earl formed into a Hurricane because it was stubborn.
Fiona is a Tropical Storm despite shear and stubborn.
So what will Fiona really do in real time?
Models at 10 AM
Models call for a turn to the North.
Where and When?
I’ll update today at the top.
Stay tuned and thanks for following.
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather vs Instagram whatever.
Ps everyone wants to know about Miami.
Because everyone has a cousin in Miami.
Doesn’t mean it’s going there… just a cute song!
It’ll turn … but where and when?
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