June 16, 2024

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Two papers summarizing the rapporteur report on recent improvements in tropical cyclone intensity change prediction from an operational perspective from IWTC-10 released online in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review – Hurricane Research Division

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The two papers summarize the rapporteur report on recent improvements in tropical cyclone intensity change prediction from an operational perspective from the 10th International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone in Bali, Indonesia. The first part focuses on recent improvements to dynamical models and the notable increase in operational intensity forecast skill. Ongoing challenges for further improving dynamic model intensity forecast skill are also discussed.  Part II details how operational intensity forecasting skill has increased due to the combined improvement of the dynamical, statistical, and probabilistic intensity guidance, and that these increases have been particularly notable for rapid intensification forecasts. Challenges remain in operational intensify forecasting, particularly regarding the forecasts of rapid intensification and weakening.

For more information, contact aoml.communications@noaa.gov. The two parts can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.003 and https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.05.004.

noaahrd

2023-05-25 14:15:51

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