January 25, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK…ISSUED NOV. 23, 2020…8:25 EST

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
The broad area of low pressure we have been forecasting, has developed between the Bahamas and Bermuda.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Based on my analysis of current and forecast wind shear maps, the low is under some strong shear.  Given this, I am suspect of any development before the approaching cold front merges with the area sometime tomorrow.  NHC suggests that should this break away from the front later (which seems to be suggested by the ECMWF), it could possibly take on some sub-tropical characteristics.  Analysis of forecast shear and 200 mb streamlines maps, upper level winds are forecast to remain unfavorable for development.  Even if this should acquire some sub-tropical features, I feel any development would be baroclinic in nature.  I will be monitoring this low during this week, and will update again if anything changes that favors development.

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has designated a SLIGHT risk of severe thunderstorms FOR PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA …

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are possible late afternoon Tuesday into Tuesday night across portions of the southern/central Plains, Ozarks, Mid-South, and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

DAY 2 TORNADO OUTLOOK


DAY 2 HAIL OUTLOOK

Now, the following information could change between this evening, and the onset of the forecast severe weather, and I will not be able to analyze updated parameters as I work tomorrow.  However, based on this evenings analysis of the NAM-WRF model, I agree with the SPC in that hail, and strong wind should be the main threat.  Based on analysis of various severe weather and tornado parameters, the onset of severe weather appears to be around 3:00 p.m. CST.  The strongest of this weather may occur from 6:00 p.m. CST through 9:00 p.m. CST.  During this period, parameters from the F5 DATA Severe Weather software suggests this could be the highest probability for any tornadic activity to occur.  As this severe wetaher moves east, and somewhat south, portions of Texas may be affected.  Albeit the current outlook from SPC does not indicate a tornado probability further south, the F5 data maps indicate a probability that tornadic activity could occur in Texas.  Again, this will probably change with new model runs in the a.m.  I just wanted to update this evening as sort of a heads up with the general areas based on the various severe and tornado parameters.  The outlined F5 data maps indicate where the data feels the best probability of tornadoes could occur.  Once hurricane season ends, I should have time to get more in depth on severe indices and list them in the synopsis.

F5 DATA 6:00 P.M. CST

F5 DATA 9:00 P.M. CST

The following are STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) maps from the NAM-WRF for the above times:



SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS (LINKED)

SPC WATCHES (LINKED…CLICK IMAGE)

INTELLICAST RADAR SUMMARY MAP (CLICK IMAGE TO UPDATE)

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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