TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT YUCATAN / NW CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2022…5:40 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone development over the Yucatan area in the 5 day tropical weather outlook to a MEDIUM (40%) probability:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

GOES 16 IR SATELLITE LOOP

IF you remember my forecast from last night, I had mentioned instead of a true crossover, that the forecast of broad low pressure may be a portion of the remnant of EPAC storm AGATHA, and the Central American Gyre.  From the NHC TWO:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific.

GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS AND ISOTACHS (INDICATING THE CAG)

The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast has also indicated increased probabilities:
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST


Global models are still consistent with developing a large low, with two of the models taking it just south and east of south Florida, with the ECMWF directing it to SW Florida.  At this point model motion should be disregarded, until we see if development does in fact occur, so as to have track guidance information once it begins running.  The following are the MSLP Normalized anomalies forecast maps out to 96 hours form the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC:
ECMWF

GFS

CMC

The GFS and CMC tend to indicate a Tropical Depression nearing Florida, while the ECMWF shows a weak Tropical Storm.  Again, accuracy on this is to be considered low confidence at the moment.

Models do indicate high RH values over the area at 96 hours, along with high PWAT values.  Dry air is still noted NW of the area, however it is too early at this time to tell whether or not it will be an inhibiting factor.  I will be using only the ECMWF graphics:
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

ECMWF PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)

Models still indicate weak to moderate shear over the area at 96 hours.  Black circle indicates the center of the low:
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST 96 HOURS

Although the 3 models do differ in the upper level 200 mb pattern, they still place the center of a radial outflow pattern well SSE of the low center.  However, the upper forecast pattern seems to be slightly more favorable, though outflow is not “optimal”.  Bear with me on this one.  In the ECMWF 200 mb pattern graphic, the black circle represents the low center.  The red arrows, indicate outflow.  You’ll note a long, pink arrow above all of that.  This is the “core” or center of a 200 mb jetstreak.  If you make sort of a “cross” shape as I have done, you can determine the entrance and exit regions of the jetstreak.  You will note the orange lettering stating 2 of the regions.  In these regions, you have upper level divergence, or spreading apart of air in the 200 mb level.  So, even though outflow is not optimal, these 2 “regions” will be pulling air away from the low, in the 200 mb level.  This should aid in surface convergence.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 96 HOURS


Based on analysis of these slightly improved forecast conditions, I concur at this time with the NHC increased probability.  However, as I have stated before, my forecast will be more accurate once we can see the situation taking shape on satellite imagery.

Bottom line, chances for tropical development have increased, and should be gradual, if something begins to take shape, and should see it near the end of this week, into the weekend

I will continue to monitor the area for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST