July 3, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT YUCATAN / NW CARIBBEAN SEA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 30, 2022…5:40 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone development over the Yucatan area in the 5 day tropical weather outlook to a MEDIUM (40%) probability:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

two_atl_5d1
GOES 16 IR SATELLITE LOOP
99052939
IF you remember my forecast from last night, I had mentioned instead of a true crossover, that the forecast of broad low pressure may be a portion of the remnant of EPAC storm AGATHA, and the Central American Gyre.  From the NHC TWO:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific.

GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS AND ISOTACHS (INDICATING THE CAG)
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f084.camerica

The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast has also indicated increased probabilities:
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_144
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_168
Global models are still consistent with developing a large low, with two of the models taking it just south and east of south Florida, with the ECMWF directing it to SW Florida.  At this point model motion should be disregarded, until we see if development does in fact occur, so as to have track guidance information once it begins running.  The following are the MSLP Normalized anomalies forecast maps out to 96 hours form the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC:
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-4257600
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-4257600
CMC
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-4257600
The GFS and CMC tend to indicate a Tropical Depression nearing Florida, while the ECMWF shows a weak Tropical Storm.  Again, accuracy on this is to be considered low confidence at the moment.

Models do indicate high RH values over the area at 96 hours, along with high PWAT values.  Dry air is still noted NW of the area, however it is too early at this time to tell whether or not it will be an inhibiting factor.  I will be using only the ECMWF graphics:
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-4257600
ECMWF PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER)
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-4257600
Models still indicate weak to moderate shear over the area at 96 hours.  Black circle indicates the center of the low:
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST 96 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-4257600
Although the 3 models do differ in the upper level 200 mb pattern, they still place the center of a radial outflow pattern well SSE of the low center.  However, the upper forecast pattern seems to be slightly more favorable, though outflow is not “optimal”.  Bear with me on this one.  In the ECMWF 200 mb pattern graphic, the black circle represents the low center.  The red arrows, indicate outflow.  You’ll note a long, pink arrow above all of that.  This is the “core” or center of a 200 mb jetstreak.  If you make sort of a “cross” shape as I have done, you can determine the entrance and exit regions of the jetstreak.  You will note the orange lettering stating 2 of the regions.  In these regions, you have upper level divergence, or spreading apart of air in the 200 mb level.  So, even though outflow is not optimal, these 2 “regions” will be pulling air away from the low, in the 200 mb level.  This should aid in surface convergence.
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST 96 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-4257600
roJ3RPw
Based on analysis of these slightly improved forecast conditions, I concur at this time with the NHC increased probability.  However, as I have stated before, my forecast will be more accurate once we can see the situation taking shape on satellite imagery.

Bottom line, chances for tropical development have increased, and should be gradual, if something begins to take shape, and should see it near the end of this week, into the weekend

I will continue to monitor the area for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-30 21:38:52

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