July 3, 2022

Weather News Road Conditions

Weather News & Forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…INCREASED PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT YUCATAN / SE GOMEX VICINITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 31, 2022…8:40 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

Dog with money

 

weather_1000px
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone development over the Yucatan area in the 5 day tropical weather outlook to a HIGH (70%) probability:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast (Tropical Depression) is now indicating a 85% probability.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY
(TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_72
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_96
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_120
GOES 16 IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
61211247
61211247VIS
You’ll note the center of the remnant of AGATHA just on the coastline of Mexico.  However, you’ll also note s separate and distinct circulation over the Yucatan area.  This is the broad low that has been forecast over the past few days.  I will be mainly utilizing the ECMWF graphics in this synopsis.

Analysis of global models still indicates little change to what they showed last night, with the GFS now splitting the system near Florida, with the dominant low moving south and east, with the ECMWF and CMC aiming more toward southern Florida.  Based on the GTWO from the NHC, and the apparent projected hatched forecast, the low appears to follow the ECMWF, and current forecast steering, inline with the consensus models TVCA / TVCE, which I prefer at this time.  Guidance should become more accurate and consolidated, once a “center” moves back over water.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1653998400-1654171200-1654516800-40
GFS
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1653998400-1654171200-1654516800-40
RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RAL AND ATCF
aep01_2022053112_track_early
atcf-01e-1653998400-3998400
The more favorable forecast conditions basically have to do with surface moisture, and moisture up to the mid level (500 mb) of the atmosphere.  The ECMWF (and GFS) both indicate high surface moisture based on the current forecast values of RH and PWAT.
ECMWF 850, 700, AND 500 MB FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh850-4257600
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh700-4257600
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-rh500-4257600
ECMWF PWAT VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-pwat-4257600
Analysis of wind shear and 200 mb streamlines maps indicates that wind shear will be favorable as the low begins development, however models show the pattern begins to become less favorable as the low supposedly approaches just off the Florida coastline, and doesn’t appear to recover once on the Atlantic side.  The upper level 200 mb pattern shows some diffluence aloft but no radial outflow, which is not conducive for quick development.  However, as shown last night, a 200 mb jetstreak intensifies in which the right entrance and left entrance regions will allow for air at the 200 mb level to be pulled away from the system.  Given all the information, I feel we could see a tropical depression develop, prior to the system reaching the Florida Peninsula.  Once on the Atlantic side, the ECMWF indicates we could see a tropical storm.  IF this comes to fruition, the system would be named ALEX.  Once other variables begin running, as this possibly becomes organized, I’ll be able to look at some thermodynamic graphics and actual wind field to determine if it may be purely tropical, or sub-tropical.  Right now, the ECMWF surface wind field would seem to indicate subtropical once the system gets into the Atlantic, as the maximum sustained winds are away from the center, vice being stronger near the center.
200 MB JETSTREAK
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-z200_speed-4214400
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1653998400-1654171200-1654430400-40
Regardless of development, this will be a “wet” system.  Residents over the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor this system, as locally heavy rainfall should spread over the southern Florida Peninsula, which may cause localized flooding, especially in low lying areas.

From the NHC 2:00 P. M. TWO:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
WPC QUANTITATIVE 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
p168i

I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, and for any organization.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-01 00:43:22

All news and articles are copyrighted to the respective authors and/or News Broadcasters. eWeatherNews is an independent Online News Aggregator


Read more from original source here…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

eWeatherNews.Com | Newsphere by AF themes.