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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
The NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone development over the Yucatan area in the 5 day tropical weather outlook to a HIGH (70%) probability:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast (Tropical Depression) is now indicating a 85% probability.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
GOES 16 IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
You’ll note the center of the remnant of AGATHA just on the coastline of Mexico. However, you’ll also note s separate and distinct circulation over the Yucatan area. This is the broad low that has been forecast over the past few days. I will be mainly utilizing the ECMWF graphics in this synopsis.
Analysis of global models still indicates little change to what they showed last night, with the GFS now splitting the system near Florida, with the dominant low moving south and east, with the ECMWF and CMC aiming more toward southern Florida. Based on the GTWO from the NHC, and the apparent projected hatched forecast, the low appears to follow the ECMWF, and current forecast steering, inline with the consensus models TVCA / TVCE, which I prefer at this time. Guidance should become more accurate and consolidated, once a “center” moves back over water.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE FROM RAL AND ATCF
The more favorable forecast conditions basically have to do with surface moisture, and moisture up to the mid level (500 mb) of the atmosphere. The ECMWF (and GFS) both indicate high surface moisture based on the current forecast values of RH and PWAT.
ECMWF 850, 700, AND 500 MB FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ECMWF PWAT VALUES
Analysis of wind shear and 200 mb streamlines maps indicates that wind shear will be favorable as the low begins development, however models show the pattern begins to become less favorable as the low supposedly approaches just off the Florida coastline, and doesn’t appear to recover once on the Atlantic side. The upper level 200 mb pattern shows some diffluence aloft but no radial outflow, which is not conducive for quick development. However, as shown last night, a 200 mb jetstreak intensifies in which the right entrance and left entrance regions will allow for air at the 200 mb level to be pulled away from the system. Given all the information, I feel we could see a tropical depression develop, prior to the system reaching the Florida Peninsula. Once on the Atlantic side, the ECMWF indicates we could see a tropical storm. IF this comes to fruition, the system would be named ALEX. Once other variables begin running, as this possibly becomes organized, I’ll be able to look at some thermodynamic graphics and actual wind field to determine if it may be purely tropical, or sub-tropical. Right now, the ECMWF surface wind field would seem to indicate subtropical once the system gets into the Atlantic, as the maximum sustained winds are away from the center, vice being stronger near the center.
200 MB JETSTREAK
ECMWF SURFACE WIND FORECAST
Regardless of development, this will be a “wet” system. Residents over the southern Florida Peninsula should monitor this system, as locally heavy rainfall should spread over the southern Florida Peninsula, which may cause localized flooding, especially in low lying areas.
From the NHC 2:00 P. M. TWO:
Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area, this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Thursday or Friday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
WPC QUANTITATIVE 7 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST
I will continue to monitor the area during the next 48 hours for any significant changes in the forecast, and for any organization.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: firstname.lastname@example.org
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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