TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK…DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR THE BAHAMAS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 21, 2023…6:25 P.M. EDT

Disclaimer: This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening!

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

STORM W PRE-SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES : 5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS
HURRICANES
MAJOR HURRICANES

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season. As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia
Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

An area of disturbed weather associated with an area of broad low pressure is located near the Bahamas. Currently, the NHC has designated a LOW (10%) probability for cyclone formation.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on analysis this evening, satellite imagery would tend to indicate a fairly well established surface circulation. However, based on the most available ASCAT pass, a closed surface circulation was not detected. It was noted that there is strong vorticity near the surface. It is noted, this low is not associated with the MJO, as the MJO is still currently in phase 7.
WEATHERNERDS GOES SATELLITE VISIBLE AND IR LOOP

CIMSS 925 MB VORTICITY MAP

Based on analysis of water vapor loop imagery, the low is being hindered by dry air wrapping around the western periphery, and into the southern portion of the low.
WEATHERNERDS GOES SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP

Analysis of the latest wind shear map from CIMSS indicates the low is under 10 – 20 kts of wind shear. Analysis of the upper level wind map does indicate a semi radial outflow pattern from the “center”, circling around the eastern portion.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP

CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAP

Based on my analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models, wind shear is forecast to increase, and the upper level wind pattern is forecast to become unfavorable for further development during the next 24 hours. I will be using graphics from the ECMWF, as the GFS has initialized a more favorable, radial wind shear pattern.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on analysis of forecast relative humidity from the ECMWF, mid level dry air is forecast to persist with this low during the next few days. Based on these forecast negative factors, I am not expecting tropical development, even though both the ECMWF and GFS do indicate a brief, closed low pressure system. The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Formation Probability forecast only indicates a 35% probability for development.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY

Based on current and forecast steering layers analysis, this area should begin to slowly move northward for a short period, then head off toward the NE, and be near Nova Scotia by THUR./FRI. time frame.
CURRENT LOW LEVEL STEERING
Both the ECMWF and GFS do indicate however, another area of low pressure to develop shortly after IVO the NE Bahamas / FL. east coast area. At the moment, it’s a little hard to nail down at the moment, however should this low occur, it may bear watching, as supposedly, the MJO will have entered phase 8 at that time:
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION

BOM MJO FORECAST
mjo_rmm.daily.20230519
I will continue to monitor the current low for any significant changes to the forecast parameters, and IVO of the Bahamas area for any future development. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7 days.