TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE…ISSUED AUG. 11, 2022…9:15 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening everyone!

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I tried my best to leave my seasonal forecast alone, however based on recent information regarding the ONI (Oceanic Nino Index) as far as the forecast average of the combined averages of both the statistical and dynamic models, analyzed temperatures and trends indicate a slight change in analog years.  The closest years resembling the closest temperatures and trend were 2016, 2011, and 2021.  I even threw in 1964 for more of a mix. 

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

While I’m still not impressed, it appears there is an increase in tropical wave activity, based on Atlantic and Africa satellite loop imagery.
GOES 16 ATLANTIC SATELLITE STILL AND LOOP


AFRICASAT


I know I’ve been speaking of an uptick in activity, based on the various forecast parameters which I analyze, and the conditions pointed toward the last week in July.  However, we’ve had at least 2 items I have found looking back, which may give some clarity.  For one, we know July is the worst month for SAL outbreaks, and it appears it’s been working overtime this season thus far.  Dry air still exists over portions of the Atlantic, however it has reduced somewhat from what we have been seeing.
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP

Second, I know I’ve mentioned the MJO numerous times in my updates.  Well, looking back and comparing both the CHI200 anomalies forecasts, as well as phase space diagrams, which have been indicating we should have entered phase 2 a couple weeks ago, it appears the MJO is taking its sweet time fully entering into phase 2.  The JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast updated today, as well as phase space diagram forecasts.  The updated CHI200 anomalies indicates conditions should remain favorable for the next month, with upward vertical velocities over Africa, and extending almost halfway across the Atlantic basin.  The 28 day mean indicates favorable conditions for development.

If you look close at the phase space diagrams, follow from the number 10 marked on the forecast line, to near months end.  The MJO forecast keeps retarding to later in the month for phase 2, and now indicates it enters this phase in about 2 – 3 days, and hangs in phase 2 until the end of Aug., entering phase 3 toward Sep.
JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST AUG 13 – AUG19

AUG 20 – AUG 26

AUG 27 – SEP 09

28 DAY MEAN

MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FORECAST


Analysis of the vertical instability chart still indicates vertical instability to be well below climatology, however it is beginning to climb.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY

Based on what I’m seeing, I believe we are going to have to actually see the MJO forecast pan out, in order to take care of the drier air, and provide better instability over the Tropical Atlantic.

The CPC ENSO update came out today, and it calls for us to remain in a LaNina pattern through winter.  The updated IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) forecast still shows a very strong negative IOD for the peak of the season.  Should all of this pan out, I believe we could see a very active 30 day pattern from whenever the “increase” may begin.  I’m not speaking hyperactive season, but more in Mother Nature may make up for lost time.  This season has been strange, to say the least.
CPC ENSO UPDATE
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Cyclone formation probabilities indicate a very good chance for development between now and the 72 hour period from 12Z, then according to the ECMWF EPS, another decent probability doesn’t show up until around day 9.
Wish I could give you more, but all I can say at the moment is, we’ll have to watch and wait to see how conditions actually play out.
CIRA CYCLONE FORMATION PROBS


ECMWF EPS PROBS



I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST