November 30, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…TROPICS REMAIN QUIET / HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION…ISSUED JUL. 09, 2022…11:10 A. M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.  I wanted to add a note regarding future severe weather forecasting.  The site I use for drawing outlined areas of where severe weather and tornadoes will most likley occur, F5 DATA, is shutting down this month, so I will no longer have the ability to provide these maps.  I am searching for other software in hopes to be able to come up with something.  The following is an archived map:
f5.torn.4pm.2

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good day everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Since the tropics are currently in a quiet state, I wanted to post on hurricane preparedness, in case anyone missed my post in the beginning of January.  As stated in my previous forecast, activity should begin to increase by the last week of this month, if the forecast parameters are accurate.  You’ll note in the water vapor loop, there is still a ton of dry air over the Atlantic basin
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
65719572
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EUMETSAT AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
AFRICASAT

This update will be regarding Hurricane Preparedness.  I wanted to make this available again, prior to the 2022 hurricane season becoming active.  I highly recommend you save this somehow and review preparation and evacuation steps in order to put together a preparation plan prior to June 01.  I have added a graphic regarding hurricane evacuation routes by state.  IF you click on it, you SHOULD be able to find hurricane evacuation information for your location. I noticed some discrepancies in information contained in the NOAA 2011 guide regarding when Hurricane Watches and Warnings are issued, and in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.  The correct ones will be posted for you here:
Tropical Storm Watch:: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 – 73 mph or greater) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.

Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.

CategorySustained WindsTypes of Damage Due to Hurricane Winds
174-95 mph
64-82 kt
119-153 km/h
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage: Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
296-110 mph
83-95 kt
154-177 km/h
Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage: Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.
3
(major)
111-129 mph
96-112 kt
178-208 km/h
Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.
4
(major)
130-156 mph
113-136 kt
209-251 km/h
Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
5
(major)
157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher
Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

The following graphics / guides contain information on hurricane preparedness…PLEASE CLICK each graphic to read the guide.  In regard to stocking up on food and water, it is recommended that you increase the supply from 3 days to 5 – 7 days.  You should stock up on non perishables and have 1 gallon of drinking water per person, per day.  In addition, when a hurricane watch is issued for your area, immediately set your refrigerator / freezer to the maximum setting.  Avoid opening the doors.  IF you need to get something out, do it quickly and close the door right away.
NOAA HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS GUIDE 2011
prepguide
As you scroll through the following document, under the topic prepare for hurricanes (click on the topic), other informational links will be seen highlighted in green.
HURRICANE READYPREPAREDNESS FOR YOUR BOAT
hurricane-resource-center
EVACUATING INDIVIDUALS WITH DISABILITIES

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TAKE YOUR PETS
pets
HURRICANE EVACUATION ROUTES BY STATE
evacroutesbanner12b1med

I will continue monitoring the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-09 15:07:21

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