July 1, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 06, 2022…8:20 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES (ATLANTIC AND AFRICA)
Tropical waves were located in the circled areas, based on the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:
GOES16_1km_ir_202206062225_0.00_50.00_-103.00_5.00_ir1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds
73481120
AFRICASAT
Alex became post-tropical at 5:00 p. m. this evening.  You  know my feelings from last night about this having been named.

Analysis this evening reveals 2 of the 3 global models (ECMWF, GFS and CMC), are showing another development, pretty much IVO the area AGATHA crossed over, and became PTC ONE, and eventually ALEX.  The GFS and CMC are hinting at development of a low in around the Yucatan / BOC area by mid month (days 7 – 10 in the period from 12Z).  The ECMWF is just indicating some lowering of pressure over Mexico.
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5272800
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5121600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5164800
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5240400
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5272800

The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast indicates a moderate prob. of development in the EPAC, near where AGATHA formed.  The GFS and CMC indicate development over 2 locations.  The GFS when put into motion, seems to show a scenario which spawned PTC ONE, in that it may be indicating another CAG event.  While the ECMWF Deterministic doesn’t indicate development, the ECMWF EPS (Ensemble) is beginning to indicate something, however not many members are in agreement.  Although my thoughts on this at the moment are, the GFS may be overdoing it (remember the hurricane it had heading toward FL a few weeks ago?).
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_216
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MSLP ANOMALY AVERAGE FORECAST
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-caribbean-mslp_ens_min-5164800

Based on analysis of surface to mid level moisture forecast maps, wind shear forecast maps, and 200 mb streamlines forecast maps, the GFS is the only model indicating a somewhat favorable upper level environment.  Both the ECMWF and CMC indicate wind shear over the area at the time.  PWAT and 500 mb RH forecast values from the ECMWF do indicate sufficient moisture for development.  Based on this analysis, it almost looks like the same pattern for EPAC AGATHA / ATL. PTC ONE could be setting up, with the only not so favorable portion being that of the upper level pattern and shear.
ECMWF PWAT AND 500 MB RH FORECAST (DAY 8.75)
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-5272800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-5272800

The MJO, based on the JMAN (JMA) model is supposed to roll into phase 1, with a good signal.  The remainder of the phase space diagram models indicate a push into phase 1, but a weaker signal. MJO phases 8 and 1 favor development in the W. Caribbean and GOMEX areas.  The ECMWF EPS 200 mb chi anomaly forecast does indciate upward vertical velocities to remain in the general vicinity for the next 2 weeks.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST FROM WEATHERMODELS.COM
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022060612_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022060612_CONTROL_360
While I’m not very impressed at the moment, I’ll be watching the area for any significant changes to the forecast pattern over the next 5 – 7 days.  I’ll probably take a breif break in forecasting, to rest the old grey matter, in the event something does pop down the road.  The break will be short however.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate tropical storm formation during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-07 00:21:05

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