TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE GOMEX DEVELOPMENT…ISSUED JUL. 12, 2022…7:40 P. M. EDT

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on analysis of the NHC 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook, and current satellite loop imagery, the broad trof of low pressure continues to meander in the northern GOMEX.  The NHC has a low probability for cyclone development which is now at ( 10%) over the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

Based on current visible satellite loop imagery, the area remains very disorganized.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The NHC has the “center” of lowest pressure just along the coast, on the border of AL/MS, at 30.0N.  However, if you look close, there appears to be another area of circulation near 25.0N;92.0W.  Based on analysis of the upper divergence map from CIMSS, this could occur, but we will have to see.  Wind shear over that particular area, and northward, is only around 10 kts at the moment.  You’ll also note two distinct areas of vorticity near the surface in the 925 mb vorticity map:
CIMSS UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 925 MB VORTICITY MAPS


Based on analysis this evening of the global models ECMWF, GFS, and CMC, NEITHER of the models indicate development, and the ECMWF EPS probability forecast has decreased greatly over the next 24-96 hours, albeit the ECMWF and GFS models still indicate fairly favorable RH values up to 500 mb, although over a diminished area, but only moderate Precipitable Water values.  Both models still indicate an improving shear pattern indicating a radial shear pattern in about 48 hours.  Since we have no organized, closed surface circulation, and models are still in disagreement where the area will head, I’m not going into where this may go, as by the time forecast steering comes to fruition, there may be nothing to steer, except an area of heavy rain.  For right now though, this area will continue to drift or meander, as steering currents at the moment are almost non existent.  I’ll be using the ECMWF graphics only this evening.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 24-72 HOURS, AND 48-96 HOURS


ECMWF PWAT, RH, AND WIND SHEAR FORECAST



Putting everything together, the only way I can see development taking place is, the center of lowest pressure has to remain over water, and away from land, further south than what is shown by the NHC, or a center reformation would have to occur where the CIMSS upper divergence maps shows the strongest divergence.

Regardless of development, heavy rains could occur over the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next few days.  The following is the WPC (Weather Prediction Center) QPF forecast map for the next 7 days:
WPC QPF 168 HOURS

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Please us it for more information about the potential for heavy rain and flooding.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

I will continue monitor the area and the remainder of the tropics for any significant changes.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 days

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST