December 8, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT YUCATAN CHANNEL / W. CARIBBEAN…ISSUED MAY 29, 7:15 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability of tropical cyclone development over the BOC in the 5 day tropical weather outlook, having increased the probability by 10%:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
CURRENT GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
28775095
You will note the EPAC storm “AGATHA” coming nearer Mexico.  Just a little note, AGATHA had undergone a period of Rapid Intensification (R.I.) over a 24 hour period as of the 4:00 p. m. CDT update from the NHC.  The storm had intensified 45 knots in the 24 hours.  R.I. is defined as follows:
The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.

Based on analysis of MSLP anomalies maps from the global models, and forecast track guidance models, we could see the remnant of AGATHA enter the very southern portion of the BOC, and spread eastward over the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel.  The forecast broad area of low pressure appears to be a combination of that remnant, interacting with the CAG (Central American Gyre), which I have drawn in pink on the GFS 850mb wind vectors and isotachs forecast map.  The following explains the CAG:
CAG EXPLAINEDimage-33
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-central-american-gyre-and-tropical-formation/
GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS AND ISOTACHS 120 HOURS

gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
The ECMWF and GFS indicate a large low pressure area developing, and in two different ways, eventually move this toward the southern Florida Peninsula.  However, I still wouldn’t be too concerned at the moment, until if and when we begin to se something trying to develop, due to the fact, there is noting at the moment to run guidance models on as far as steering and intensity.  Both models do however agree on where the development may initiate.  The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still remains about the same.  The majority of MJO phase space diagram models, both global and ensemble still indicate a fairly strong MJO signal into phase 8 during this time, with some pretty strong CHI200 anomalies still forecast by the ECMWF EPS.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-conuswide-mslp_norm_anom-1653825600-1653825600-1654257600-40
gfs-deterministic-conuswide-mslp_norm_anom-1653825600-1653825600-1654257600-40
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY ANIMATION
ecmwf-tcprobs-conuswide-prob_td_ecmwf-1653825600-1654084800-1654689600-80
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022052912_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022052912_CONTROL_240
Analysis of the ECMWF relative humidity forecast from the surface to 500 mb, indicates high RH values from the surface through 700 mb.  The 500 mb forecast shows some high values, but over a small area, with dry air to the west, which would be right on the edge of the forecast low.  So, this could possibly ingest dry air if development occurs.  This will however, remain to be seen.

Analysis of the ECMWF winds shear and 200 mb streamline pattern forecast indicates weak to moderate shear over where the low should be, and a slightly improved outflow pattern, although the pattern resembles more of a diffluent pattern, vice outflow.  The pattern does indicate a radial outflow, however it is displaced slightly SSE of the area.  The black circle indicates where the center of the low is forecast to be.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-4430400
ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-4430400
Based on the forecast factors mentioned, should development occur, I am not expecting any “quick” as far as development or organization.  I believe at the moment, this will be something gradual.

I will continue to monitor the area for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-29 23:11:59

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