TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT YUCATAN CHANNEL / W. CARIBBEAN…ISSUED MAY 29, 7:15 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Good evening everyone!

The NHC has designated a LOW (30%) probability of tropical cyclone development over the BOC in the 5 day tropical weather outlook, having increased the probability by 10%:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)

CURRENT GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

You will note the EPAC storm “AGATHA” coming nearer Mexico.  Just a little note, AGATHA had undergone a period of Rapid Intensification (R.I.) over a 24 hour period as of the 4:00 p. m. CDT update from the NHC.  The storm had intensified 45 knots in the 24 hours.  R.I. is defined as follows:
The United States National Hurricane Center defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h) in a 24-hour period.

Based on analysis of MSLP anomalies maps from the global models, and forecast track guidance models, we could see the remnant of AGATHA enter the very southern portion of the BOC, and spread eastward over the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel.  The forecast broad area of low pressure appears to be a combination of that remnant, interacting with the CAG (Central American Gyre), which I have drawn in pink on the GFS 850mb wind vectors and isotachs forecast map.  The following explains the CAG:
CAG EXPLAINED
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-central-american-gyre-and-tropical-formation/
GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS AND ISOTACHS 120 HOURS

The ECMWF and GFS indicate a large low pressure area developing, and in two different ways, eventually move this toward the southern Florida Peninsula.  However, I still wouldn’t be too concerned at the moment, until if and when we begin to se something trying to develop, due to the fact, there is noting at the moment to run guidance models on as far as steering and intensity.  Both models do however agree on where the development may initiate.  The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still remains about the same.  The majority of MJO phase space diagram models, both global and ensemble still indicate a fairly strong MJO signal into phase 8 during this time, with some pretty strong CHI200 anomalies still forecast by the ECMWF EPS.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST


ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY ANIMATION

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST


Analysis of the ECMWF relative humidity forecast from the surface to 500 mb, indicates high RH values from the surface through 700 mb.  The 500 mb forecast shows some high values, but over a small area, with dry air to the west, which would be right on the edge of the forecast low.  So, this could possibly ingest dry air if development occurs.  This will however, remain to be seen.

Analysis of the ECMWF winds shear and 200 mb streamline pattern forecast indicates weak to moderate shear over where the low should be, and a slightly improved outflow pattern, although the pattern resembles more of a diffluent pattern, vice outflow.  The pattern does indicate a radial outflow, however it is displaced slightly SSE of the area.  The black circle indicates where the center of the low is forecast to be.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST

Based on the forecast factors mentioned, should development occur, I am not expecting any “quick” as far as development or organization.  I believe at the moment, this will be something gradual.

I will continue to monitor the area for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST