June 30, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE BOC / YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA…ISSUED MAY 28, 2022…7:15 P. M. EDT

5 min read

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!


The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of tropical cyclone development over the BOC in the 5 day tropical weather outlook:
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
CURRENT GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
27868539
27868539WV
You will note the EPAC storm “AGATHA” near Mexico.  You will also note, extremely dry air over the GOMEX and down by the BOC, which would make development unlikely.  However, global models ECMWF and GFS indicate improving RH values and high TPW values by the morning of June 02.  Current forecast track guidance tends to point toward a crossover, into the BOC.  However, I’m not 100% sure of this based on the ECMWF and GFS MSLP Anomalies forecast, indicating the storm breaks apart, with some energy moving over the Yucatan Peninsula and Yucatan Channel area.  The low could be a product of the CAG (Central American Gyre), which is showing a strong presence by 120 hours in the forecast period.
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST 120 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-4171200
ECMWF PWAT VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-4171200
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1653739200-1653739200-1654344000-40
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1653739200-1653739200-1654344000-40
GFS 850 MB (CAG 120 HOUR FORECAST)gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
CAG EXPLAINEDimage-33
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-central-american-gyre-and-tropical-formation/

Models still indicate low pressure developing and have been consistent, albeit shifts in the initial position of the developing low have been noted.  Models will not have a very good handle on this, until we see “something” in the BOC.  IF and WHEN something starts to organize, models will be able to handle the scenario better.  The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still has a 45-50% probability for development of a tropical depression.  Based on analysis of the above mentioned RH and TPW, the ECMWF and GFS indicate a somewhat favorable shear environment, however the 200 mb streamline forecast still indicates the center of a radial outflow pattern will be displaced well to the SE of the supposed low pressure area.  The pattern however does show a slightly diffluent pattern NE of the low, at 200 mb.  The current CHI200 forecast still indicates a very strong upward motion signal over the area from JUN 02 – JUN 07, with this favorable signal slightly weaker, and shifting SE over the Caribbean:
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_192
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_gulf_216

ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECASTeps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022052812_CONTROL_240eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022052812_CONTROL_360
Based on the fairly favorable conditions analyzed, save the 200 mb pattern forecast, I cannot say that development of a tropical depression is 100%, however, development “is possible”, as the analyzed parameters indicate fairly decent “signals” for something to organize..  Again, at this point in time in forecasting tropical entities, a more accurate forecast can be delivered, once or if, something does appear and tries to become organized.  This is why I always caution folks, not to get all anxious or worried, as we don’t even have a system to analyze, or see what conditions are present from the surface to over the system.

I will continue to monitor the area for development over the next few days.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-28 23:14:49

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