June 28, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NHC INCREASES DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY…ISSUED JUN. 13, 2022…8:40 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat. 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on the recent NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC has increased the probability of Tropical Cyclone formation to MEDIUM (40%) during the next 5 days over the SW Caribbean Sea.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Analysis of satellite loop imagery this evening does indicate a broad area of circulation associated with a broad area of disturbed weather near and over Nicaragua and Honduras, and into a portion of the SW Caribbean. 
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
98709175wide
98709175
98709175vis
The tropical wave that displayed pronounced rotation which I mentioned last night, has come ashore over Nicaragua.

Based on analysis of the ECMWF, GFS and CMC global models, the GFS once again is the only model indicating development at this time.  The following graphics are shown at the 5 day mark (120 hours), which would fall in the time frame of the 5 day tropical outlook.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5553600
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5553600
CMC
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-5553600
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS still shows the area under 20-30 kts of shear.  However, by day 5 in the forecast period, the ECMWF and GFS indicate a more favorable pattern, with very little shear over the supposed “center” of where low pressure may be located.  One strange thing about this, while the ECMWF dies not indicate a closed low pressure system, it places the favorable shear pattern, fairly close to where the GFS has the low centered.  Based on analysis of the current GFS zonal shear forecast, little to no zonal shear is forecast to be in the vicinity.  The black circle in the GFS shear map indicates where it has the supposed system centered.  Analysis of the 200 mb streamline pattern from both models indicates a slightly improved pattern with increased diffluence, which should allow for better evacuation of air in the upper atmosphere.
GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST 120 HOURS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5575200
ECMWF SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5553600
Both models still indicate an improving moisture pattern at the surface through the mid levels of the atmosphere, approaching the 5 day period in the forecast.
ECMWF AND GFS RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND PWAT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-1655121600-1655121600-1655553600-40
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-rh_fourpanel-1655143200-1655143200-1655575200-40
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-1655121600-1655121600-1655553600-40
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-1655143200-1655143200-1655575200-40
Upon analysis of the NHC 18Z surface map, and the GFS 12Z 850 mb wind vector forecast, IF development does take place, it appears it may be a blend of a tropical wave that will enter the area, along with a strong Central American Gyre forecast to be in the vicinity in five days.
GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS FORECAST
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f120.camerica
Based on the favorable forecast parameters, should they pan out, I have to concur at the moment with the NHC probability upgrade, and development cannot be ruled out at this time.  However, with the lack of other model support at the moment, this has to be considered low confidence until a solid surface feature can be identified within the next 5 days.

Based on analysis of the forecast steering pattern, the graphic of the hatched area makes sense, as forecast steering at the moment indicates if development occurs, a low “could” be drawn northward initially, eventually turning toward the NW, then WNW into the Yucatan Peninsula, then exiting into the extreme southern BOC.  However, more on this will be known, if and when we have an actual LLC to track, and something for guidance models to latch onto.

I will continue to monitor this situation over the next 48 – 72 hours for any significant changes in the pattern.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate tropical storm formation during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-14 00:37:18

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