December 5, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 26, 2022…8:50 P.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11
TOTAL HURRICANES:       5
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Good evening everyone!

The NHC has taken interest in 2 areas in the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.  One is north of Puerto Rico, and is associated with a sharp, elongated surface trof.  The other area is where an area of low pressure could begin to develop sometime by the weekend to the beginning of next week.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO MAPS(LINKED TO NHC)
two_atl_5d1

two_atl_5d2
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP
38722569
The first area is currently under strong shear, and the current shear forecast indicates shear should remain in place, however becoming marginally conducive for a breif period, before shear increases after the weekend.  NHC indicates this could take on sub-tropical characteristics, and could become a subtropical depression within the next couple of days, before the environment becomes non conducive.  Based on my analysis of forecast conditions, any development or strengthening of this feature would be baroclinic in nature, just by the fact of wind shear over the system. 
The second area is supposed to form in the Caribbean Sea.

All the global models analyzed (ECMWF, GFS, ICON, and CMC ) are in agreement of an area of low pressure developing late this weekend, into early nest week.  The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability Forecast gives a 60% probability of development in the 5 – 7 day period.  I will point out, this is not the monster hurricane the GFS has been wanting to develop, and jumping it all over the place.  The GFS does indicate a second large low in the eastern Caribbean and moving NE, but more in the 11 – 12 day period.
ECMWF, GFS, ICON, AND CMC MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-7206800
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-7120400
icon-all-caribbean-mslp-7206800
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-7282400
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY 120 – 168 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_168
I did not analyze forecast steering, as right now it’s a moot point, until we actually see a low level circulation become closed off and organize, as the guidance models need a focused source of heat energy to zero in on.  However, the global models at the moment do mover this into central America.

Analysis of forecast wind shear, 200 mb streamline pattern, relative humidity from the surface to the 500 mb level, and PWAT forecast all indicate some favorable conditions for development with high humidity values, moderate to high PWAT values, somewhat of a radial shear pattern, and decent (although not optimal) upper level outflow at the time the low is supposed to begin development.  Based on these factors, and the CHI200 anomalies forecast indicating strong upward motion at 200 mb, development does seem likely at the moment.  I will be posting the forecast graphics from the ECMWF model below. You see me mention the CHI200 anomalies a lot…what this motion does is, it moves air away from a central point in the atmosphere, basically creating a void.  Mother nature senses this and needs to replace this air.  So, more air and moisture converge at the surface and rises.  This in turn lowers pressures at the surface and low pressure begins to develop.  Once (should) development begins, I will analyze conditions out further in time to try and determine future strength / development.  At the moment, there is nothing there to develop.  However in my analysis this evening, I looked at ASCAT data, and it appears the forecast low may be born out of a tropical wave approaching S. America.
ECMWF FORECAST WIND SHEAR, 200 MB STREAMLINES, PWAT AND RH VALUES
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-7206800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-7206800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-7206800

ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022102612_CONTROL_360

ASCAT DATA
WMBas101

The following link takes a little to load, however it’s an interactive radar map, but you can zoom in and click on the radar you wish to view:

RADAR PUBLIC ACCESSIBLE DATABASE
http://tropicalglobe.com/radar_database/

I will continue to monitor the area for ANY significant changes in the forecast parameters, and will be posting updates IF development does occur.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-10-27 00:42:01

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