December 5, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED OCT. 01, 2022…8:40 P.M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 17 – 19
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 –  5

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:        7
MAJOR HURRICANES:       3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 9
TOTAL HURRICANES:       3
MAJOR HURRICANES:      2

U. S. LANDFALLS: 3

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Alrighty!  This synopsis I’m sure will seem much shorter.  It’s good though, I need a little break in the action.  A lot of brain power used over the past week.

Analysis this evening indicated 2 tropical waves in satellite loop imagery, as well as on the TAFB recent surface analysis.  One in the EATL, and one in the CATL approaching the Lesser Antilles.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (EATL)
85411831.eatl
CATL
85411831
NHC TAFB SURFACE ANALYSIS (LINKED TO GRAPHIC)
USA_18Z
The wave in the EATL is the one the NHC mentions in their 5 day graphical tropical weather outlook, designating a HIGH (70%) probability for cyclone development during the next 5 days.
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models, conditions are forecast to be favorable or conducive if you will for this to develop, and it could very well become the next Tropical Depression.  Analysis this evening indicated the forecast calls for very high relative humidity values from the surface up to the 500 mb level, developing radial wind shear pattern, and the beginning of what may be upper level outflow at 200 mb in a few days.  Does this sound familiar?  IF these conditions to come to fruition and are lined up vertically over the wave, then we should see a Tropical Depression, albeit development may be slow to occur.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a high percentage over the next 5 days
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_120
ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST 96 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-rh500-4971200
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-pwat-4971200
WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-shear_850v200-4971200
200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eatl-z200_speed-4971200
Based on analysis of the forecast pattern, regardless of development, if the pattern does not change, this should continue on a pretty much WNW, possibly briefly bending west, and then re-curving, based on not seeing any significant ridging over the Atlantic basin.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-4971200
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-5230400
I will continue to monitor the wave for any significant changes in organization and forecast conditions.

Elsewhere, the wave closer to the Islands is forecast to enter the Caribbean Sea.  Currently, analysis of wind shear and upper level maps indicates conditions to be less than conducive for development at the moment.  Once this enters the Caribbean, wind shear is forecast to diminish and a radial patter is forecast to develop.  However, the upper level winds forecast indicates winds at 200 mb will be more zonal in nature, and relative humidity at the mid level (500 mb) is going to be limited, and not as moist.  As of this moment, it is unknown what type of precip may be experienced by the Islands, as shower activity is limited, based on satellite loop imagery.  However, I thought my friends in the Islands could use the following link:
https://www.weatherbug.com/weather-forecast/now/bridgetown-barbados-bb

I will be monitoring both areas closely over the next 5 days.

The following is my hurricane preparedness post from JAN. 27, 2022…PLEASE REVIEW:
https://stormw.wordpress.com/2022/01/27/%ef%bf%bchurricane-preparedness-information-guide-issued-jan-27-2022-1215-p-m-est/

The following map will allow to to get information from your NWS office.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN RADAR SITE…ONCE YOU CLICK THE SITE, GO TO LOOP DURATION TO CREATE A LOOP)
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AMS

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-10-02 00:29:46

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