Disclaimer: This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service. ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content. As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions. In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE. I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc. My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics. I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).
The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season. The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy
We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names. The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda
STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES: 6
MAJOR HURRICANES: 2
2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6
U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening. IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life. This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.
The area of disturbed weather which was over the w. Caribbean Sea yesterday evening, has moved south near the coast of Central America, and has diminished greatly. Yesterday evening saw a blowup of convection, and a very favorable upper level pattern. However, since yesterday evening, the upper level pattern has become less conducive, and wind shear has been increasing. Based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamlines forecast from the ECMWF, I am not expecting development of this area, and the NHC now has a zero percent probability of cyclone development.
GOES 16 CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)
Elsewhere, the ECMWF and to some extent, the GFS models indicate development of a large area of low pressure around the Monday / Tuesday time frame, between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The ECMWF shows a larger, stronger low, while the GFS shows a smaller, weaker low.
Based on my analysis this evening of the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline forecast, wind shear is forecast to be quite strong, as well as the 200 mb streamline pattern. Based on this, I feel if development occurs, this should be more Baroclinic in nature, given the wind shear and 200 mb pattern.
One thing is noted however, the pattern suggests some strong divergence aloft. This, combined with SST’s warm enough to sustain a subtropical storm, this low “could” begin to acquire some subtropical characteristics. Once this low begins to form (based on satellite imagery), I will probably be updating on it. The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development over the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY MAP 108 HOURS
ECMWF WIND SHEAR 108 HOURS
ECMWF 200 MB WINDS 108 HOURS
NHC GRAPHIC TWO
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST