January 18, 2021

Weather News – Road Conditions – weather forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED NOV. 19, 2020…8:00 P.M. EST

5 min read


Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  Without these sites, I’m pretty much left in the dark.  The F5 Data maps I post as well, is another out of pocket expense (monthly subscription).  Updates to software (weather related), are also out of pocket to me.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!  Without your help, I may not be able to continue paying the monthly subscription charges for access to all of the best information I use in my forecasts.
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Greetings to everyone!
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring the tropics.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat, or development of new systems (i.e. INVESTS).

The following are the storm names for the 2020 hurricane season.  The names in bold red have already formed this season:
Arthur Bertha  Cristobal  Dolly  Edouard  Fay  Gonzalo  Hanna  Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana  Omar  Paulette  Rene  Sally  Teddy
Vicky Wilfred

We are now into the Greek alphabet as far as storm names.  The following names in bold red have been used so far:
Alpha Beta Gamma Delta Epsilon Zeta Eta Theta Iota Kappa Lambda

STORMW’s SEASONAL FORECAST:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 21
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 10
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 12
TOTAL HURRICANES:         6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2

2020 SEASON TOTAL:
NAMED STORMS: 30
HURRICANES: 13
MAJOR HURRICANES: 6

U.S. LANDFALLS: 12
I’ve given thought to this, due to the time it takes to ACCURATELY analyze the global and hurricane models and the various parameters that need to be analyzed, collecting important graphics, then having to type the synopsis, I will continue to post links from the NHC and other sites as necessary, with the information you need as far as surge, storm information, watches and warnings, local NWS forecast conditions and statements, actions to be implemented, etc. if a storm is threatening.  IF YOU SEE A LINK, PLEASE CLICK IT, as there is VALUABLE information to help you prepare and stay abreast, and could save your life.  This is less time consuming and contains ALL the information you’ll need to prepare for a tropical storm or hurricane should it be forecast to affect your area.

Good evening!
The area of disturbed weather which was over the w. Caribbean Sea yesterday evening, has moved south near the coast of Central America, and has diminished greatly.  Yesterday evening saw a blowup of convection, and a very favorable upper level pattern.  However, since yesterday evening, the upper level pattern has become less conducive, and wind shear has been increasing.  Based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamlines forecast from the ECMWF, I am not expecting development of this area, and the NHC now has a zero percent probability of cyclone development.
GOES 16 CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP (CLICK IMAGE)

Elsewhere, the ECMWF and to some extent, the GFS models indicate development of a large area of low pressure around the Monday / Tuesday time frame, between the Bahamas and Bermuda.  The ECMWF shows a larger, stronger low, while the GFS shows a smaller, weaker low.
ECMWF

GFS

Based on my analysis this evening of the wind shear forecast and 200 mb streamline forecast, wind shear is forecast to be quite strong, as well as the 200 mb streamline pattern.  Based on this, I feel if development occurs, this should be more Baroclinic in nature, given the wind shear and 200 mb pattern. 
BAROCLINIC DEFINITION
https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Baroclinic_instability

One thing is noted however, the pattern suggests some strong divergence aloft.  This, combined with SST’s warm enough to sustain a subtropical storm, this low “could” begin to acquire some subtropical characteristics.  Once this low begins to form (based on satellite imagery), I will probably be updating on it.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) probability of cyclone development over the next 5 days.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY MAP 108 HOURS

ECMWF WIND SHEAR 108 HOURS

ECMWF 200 MB WINDS 108 HOURS

NHC GRAPHIC TWO

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.



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