TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 26, 2022…8:15 P. M. EDT

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Good evening everyone!
CURRENT GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

I’m going to try and make this short, but still try to get the point across.  Based on analysis this evening of global models MSLP anomalies, 500 mb pattern, and recent ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast for a Tropical Depression, it appears we “could” see some type of development during the first week of June.  Analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and JMA global models still indicates the lowering of pressures anywhere from the BOC to the extreme W. Caribbean.  The ECMWF is more over the Yucatan Peninsula, with the CMC being more in the BOC, with the GFS and JMA a little more eastward.  I will only however be posting the ECMWF and GFS solutions:
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST

GFS

Analysis of TPW and RH forecast maps indicate that ample surface and mid level moisture will be in place over the area during that week.
ECMWF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST

The current wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS indicates weak to possible moderate wind shear over the area, with the best conditions directly over the projected low pressure.  Models still depict 200 mb streamlines to be offset, however appear to be bringing a better outflow pattern near the supposed development.

The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast has decreased the probability, and the signal moves over Central America and a portion of the Yucatan.  Based on this re-analysis, it appears now that IF something comes to fruition, it may be a combination of a piece of energy breaking from the current EPAC INVEST, and lowering pressures due to the ridging over the NE I mentioned in yesterday evenings forecast.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST

Again, just because models are showing a developing low, it doesn’t mean a “definite” development, albeit the four models have been consistent.

Although the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast has weakened the probability, the possibility of a more increased chance for development may be present.  I’ll explain.

Updated model data from the JMA Ensemble Prediction system, indicates a particularly strong upward motion signal of the MJO for the first 10 days of June.  This is one of the strongest signals I’ve seen in a while.   The blues indicate upward motion at the 200 mb level, which in this case indicates some pretty strong divergence aloft.  This in turn should allow for from pretty decent surface convergence.  This process leads to lowering of surface pressures.  The ECMWF and GFS CHI200 anomalies forecast indicate the same pattern, noted in green.
JMA ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM MJO (FIRST WEEK)

ECMWF AND GFS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST


In addition, the recent update of MJO Phase Space Diagrams indicates the MJO to move into phase 8, with a fairly strong signal.  IF we don’t see development over the area, I will be a little surprised, as these factors favor development over the GOMEX and W. Caribbean.  However for right now,  a definite development scenario cannot be safely ruled in.  As stated last night, I will continue to monitor the area this weekend and coming week, to see if satellite imagery picks up on any shower and thunderstorm activity that may look like it is trying to organize.
MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM ECMWF

ECMWF ENSEMBLE

GEFS BIAS CONTROLLED

JMAN

Phases 8 and 1, are the favorable phases for development in the GOMEX and W. Caribbean, as shown in the graphics.  These graphics were developed by Frederic Vitart after years of analysis of the MJO phases.  The orange areas indicate the favorable areas, with the map on the left being observed conditions, and the map on the right being models forecast.
MJO PHASES 8 AND 1 DEVELOPMENT AREAS

Here is a little information on Vitart, from the ECMWF website:

Frederic Vitart has a scientific background in weather and climate. He has over 20 years of expertise in operational probabilistic forecasting  and numerical model development at ECMWF. His current main duty at ECMWF is to lead research on extended-range forecasting.