May 24, 2024

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 25, 2023…8:55 P.M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

The following is my outlook forecast for the upcoming 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

STORM W SEASONAL FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 11– 14
TOTAL HURRICANES :        5 – 6
MAJOR HURRICANES:        2 – 3

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2023 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harold Idalia Jose Katia

Lee Margot Nigel Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney

In analysis this evening, the NHC has me a little confused.  In the current TWO, they mention the low that is forecast to develop will form along the “frontal” boundary.  In the Tropical Weather discussion, they mention a low that was near the SW FL. coast will drift into the western Atlantic.  If you look at the last surface analysis compared to the TWO map, the yellow “X” is close to the FL. east coast, and the front, is NE of there.  There is a trough however associated over the area that is marked.  IF you remember the MSLP anomaly animation maps I posted the other night, the lowering pressures begin near the Bahamas, well south of the front, and the low pressure area begins to develop as the trough lifts NEWD.  Long story short, I’m not sure this may be frontal in nature, but a trough left in the wake of the front.  You’ll also notice in the Cyclone Phase Evolution thermal map, the low starts out as warm core.  In my years of forecasting, if I remember correctly, a frontal low does not begin as warm core.  Anyway, long story short, if the low is not associated with a frontal boundary, then I still believe this has a slim probability of becoming sub-tropical once it gets close to making “landfall”.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO MAP
two_atl_7d1
TAFB 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
USA_12Z
From the NHC TWO:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coast of the 
southeastern United States are associated with a front and trough 
of low pressure. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected 
to form along the frontal boundary within the next day or so. The 
system appears unlikely to become a subtropical or tropical cyclone 
since it is forecast to remain frontal while moving generally 
northward and inland over the Carolinas this weekend.

From the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion:

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The 1007 mb low pressure system near SW 
coast of Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the 
western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north 
through Sat night.

Based on analysis this evening of the global models ECMWF and GFS with a couple of other global models, modeling still indicates lowering of MSLP Normalized anomalies over Florida and the Bahamas during the next 36 – 48 hours, with eventual consolidation into a weak area of low pressure developing east of GA/SC.  This leads me to believe this low may not be associated with the frontal boundary, as the low breaks from the trough and moves northward, which is still located south of the current frontal boundary.
ECMWF, GFS AND NAM MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1685016000-1685059200-1685232000-80
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-mslp_norm_anom-1685037600-1685059200-1685232000-80
nam-nest-eastgulf-mslp-1685037600-1685037600-1685210400-80
CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION THERMAL MAP
62.phase2
While upper level winds (200 mb) are not exactly favorable for outflow, wind shear does begin to weaken as the low becomes closer to the coast.  This, along with the ram (26C) water may be enough for this to maintain a warm core.  IF so, and the low is not attached to a frontal boundary, the slim probability of sub-tropical development may exist.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-shear_850v200-5188800
Winds of Gale force or minimal to mid Tropical Storm force winds are expected close to the coast.
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1685016000-1685059200-1685232000-80
GFS
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1685037600-1685059200-1685253600-80
Seas may build to around 18 – 20 offshore and 6 – 8 ft near the coast.  Residents along the coast who experience an onshore flow may see minor coastal flooding and beach erosion.
The following are the forecast 5 day total precipitation amounts from the ECMWF, GFS AND WPC
ecmwf-deterministic-eastgulf-total_precip_inch-5448000
gfs-deterministic-eastgulf-total_precip_inch-5469600
p120i
The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.

NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

WSI DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED)

RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)

I will continue to monitor the area during the next 36 hours as well as various modeling for any significant changes  Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2023-05-26 00:46:09

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