TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 25, 2022…8:25 P.M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!
CURRENT GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on analysis this evening of global models MSLP anomalies, 500 mb pattern, and recent ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast for a Tropical Depression, it appears we “could” see some type of development by JUN 02 – JUN03.  This would be in day 8 of the forecast period, running into day 10.

Based on analysis of MSLP Anomalies forecast, we have support from 4 of the global models indicating some type of development, and at least lowering of surface pressures IVO the BOC or Caribbean.  At first, my thoughts were that it could be a crossover from the EPAC, however closer analysis seems to indicate another feature I will mention further in.  I have been keeping tabs on the ECMWF and GFS over the past few days, and it’s NOW the ECMWF showing consistency run to run over the past 48 hours, indicating development in the BOC.  Between the 4 models (ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and the JMA), the GFS is the outlier indicating lowering pressures south of Cuba.  The JMA is not animated, as its forecast period ends at 192 hours.
MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST ECMWF

GFS

CMC

JMA

The latest run of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model indicates an approximate 60 – 65% probability of a Tropical Depression  between days 7 – 9 in the forecast period from 12Z today.
ECMWF EPS PROBABILITY OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY ANIMATION

Based on my analysis of the wind shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS models, along with the 200 mb streamline pattern from both models, indications are during the time period, wind shear over the supposed low will only be on the order of 15 – 20 kts.  This could allow for some slow development IF something comes to fruition.  Models indicate ample moisture from the surface up to 500 mb, with possibly on minor dry air ingestion at 500 mb.  The only thing that could negate development, is the 200 mb pattern forecast suggest that radial outflow will be displaced well to the SE of any low pressure.  Since I am pressed for time, I am just posting the ECMWF graphics for moisture and wind shear.
ECMWF TPW

ECMWF 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY

ECMWF WIND SHEAR

I promised I would mention what I think may be driving this.  I know some folks have heard me mention “ridge over troubled water”.  The models indicate in the 500 mb anomalies, a decent ridge building north of the GOMEX/Caribbean Sea over the NE section of the U. S.  When this occurs, we normally see a lowering of MSLP south of the ridging, hence the Caribbean/GOMEX area as seen in the animations, as airflow runs from high pressure to low pressure.  I analyzed things for the EPAC system, and the CAG (Central American Gyre), and neither appeared to be the “catylist”.
ECMWF 500 MB ANOMALY FORECAST

I want to reiterate, just because the models “show it”…doesn’t mean it will actually happen.  We just saw this with the case of the GFS model, showing a hurricane in the Gulf last week, and being consistent with it from run to run for over a week, before dropping the idea.  However, given 4 model support and the forecast conditions, it is possible.  However, there is no reason to freak out or become overly concerned.  The area just needs to be monitored over the next 72 – 96 hours.  The only time one should be concerned is, IF we get cloudiness and thunderstorm activity over any suspect area, and it begins to start organizing.  Good rule of thumb.

I will be monitoring the area closely over the next 72 – 96 hours, and will update should anything pop up on satellite.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST