TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 19, 2022…8:05 P. M. EDT4 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
This will be short tonight.
From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes. Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather. Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes. Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both. I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat. Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates the area of disturbed weather from yesterday evening has waned in convection and the area is disorganized, appearing to have moved west, just crossing into land over Central America, based on visible satellite loop imagery, which appears to show a weak circulation over land. This could be attributed to (the weakening of convection) that with the CAG and a portion of the tropical wave being in the ITCZ/Monsoon trof, the flaring of convection at various locations close to the feature, may have provided competition. In other words, various areas of convection will rob energy from other areas of low pressure, and in return, you can get areas stronger than another. This is why, when we have a developing tropical storm embedded within the ITCZ, it has to break free from the ITCZ in order to develop into something stronger.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (IR AND VIS)
MJO phase space diagram forecasts indciate the MJO to now move out of phase 8, into the “null” position after the 22nd. The ECMWF CHI200 forecast also indicates we lose upward motion over the Caribbean between then and the 29th. From the 29th through JUN 03, a very strong upward motion pattern is forecast over the extreme EPAC, extending into the W. Caribbean. Right now, it’s hard to say whether or not we could see something pop up, as there is a discrepancy between the ECMWF and GFS models. The ECMWF shows the favorable conditions such as lower shear, and radial 200 mb outflow over the EPAC area, where the deepest blues are located in the CHI200 forecast map, while the GFS indicates these conditions over Central America to a slim portion of the extreme western Caribbean.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 FORECAST 29 MAY-JUN 03
Based on my analysis of the Global models, neither the GFS or ECMWF indicate any development during the next 7 days. Based on the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast, the tropical wave will continue to interact with the CAG, and it now appears development stands a good chance in the EPAC. It appears the ECMWF EPS Probability map was correct in a westward motion, as analysis of the 200 mb streamline map showing radial outflow, and the forecast shear map from both the ECMWF and now the GFS, indicates these favorable conditions moving into the EPAC. So what this means is, it’s back to a wait and see period, and continued monitoring of the GOMEX and Caribbean.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
I will be monitoring the tropics daily, and will update on anything that may look suspicious.
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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