December 10, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 17, 2022…8:35 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

Good evening everyone!

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

There are probably some that have heard enough of the forecast favorable signals I have posted for the past week, so I’ll try to be short on this, however the signals have come to fruition which I’ll show some of them in near real time maps.

I am currently monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorm activity pretty much centered over the Central American Peninsula.   Shower activity has waned somewhat since this afternoon.  This activity is being caused by a combination of the CAG you heard me mention, which is now over the area, and a tropical wave just exiting 75.0W longitude.
GOES 16 IR AND SWIR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
58338411
58338411SW
The recent 850 mb winds from the GFS indicate the CAG, which I have drawn in red.
GFS 850 MB WIND PATTERN
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f006.camerica

The following will explain the CAG (Central American Gyre).image-33
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:

https://www.wbrz.com/news/the-central-american-gyre-and-tropical-formation/

You’ve heard me talk about the forecast of an upper level outflow pattern.  Here is the recent 200 mb wind pattern, indicating a radial upper level outflow.
CIMSS 200 MB WIND MAP
wg8wvir
Both the ECMWF and GFS still indicate the outflow to be radial through 72 hours.  After 72 hours, reanalysis will be performed to see if any changes occur.
ECMWF AND GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3048000
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-z200_speed-3048000
The 3 global models, ECMWF, GFS and CMC are forecasting high relative humidity values over the area for the next 72 hours, and high precipitable water values. 

Wind shear over the area is between 20-25 kts at the moment, and the shear tendency indicates shear has reduce by 5 kts during the last 24 hours.  Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a reduction in shear to around 15-20 kts by 72 hours.
ECMWF AND GFS SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3048000
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-3080400
The ECMWF EPS CHI200 anomalies forecast indicates upward motion will be present until the 22nd, and diminishes greatly thereafter, only to re-appear by the first of June.
ECMWF EPS CHI200 FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022051712_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022051712_CONTROL_360
The GFS model is the only one still indicating a TS, then Hurricane in the GOMEX, however the recent run pushes development back by 9 to 10 days.  The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model shows a 50-60% probability during the next 24-96 hours in the W. Caribbean, then probs moving into the EPAC.
ECMWF TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST (TROPICAL DEPRESSION) 24-96 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_72
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_96
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY ANIMATION
ecmwf-tcprobs-caribbean-prob_td_ecmwf-1652788800-1653048000-1653652800-80
Based on my analysis, this does not indciate that development is imminent, however, you have now seen in this synopsis that the favorable conditions I’ve been forecasting are now in place.  However, we now have an area of lower pressure over the area with the combination of the Central American Gyre, and the Tropical Wave entering the area.  As I just stated, it doesn’t necessarily mean develop WILL occur, however it’s time to begin paying better attention to the area.
I will continue to monitor this area closely for any significant changes, and if the area in question shows a consolidation of convection between now and tomorrow evening, I will try to post another update.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-05-18 00:36:48

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