TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED MAY 16, 2022…8:35 P. M. EDT5 min read
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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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Good evening everyone!
From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes. Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather. Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes. Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both. I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat. Thanks for your understanding.
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Those of you that have paid attention to my previous tropical forecasts this month, I’m sure you’ve seen me mention the favorable signals in regard to development, and possible development in the Caribbean in a few days. This update will be short, as I see no sense in posting graphics that have shown the same conditions for the past 3 days. The Global models still show a favorable upper level outflow pattern in the forecast, although the GFS is more oriented in the extreme W. Caribbean, while the ECMWF is more over Central America to the extreme E. PAC, with the CMC being in the camp of the extreme E. PAC. Various modeling of the GFS and ECMWF still indicate strong upward vertical velocities occurring during the next few days, and phase space diagram forecast still put the MJO in phase 8, between the 19th and 23rd of the month. In a nutshell, all the conditions I have mentioned are still forecast to be favorable for development.
Now, we have the ECMWF onboard showing an area of low pressure in the BOC, by the morning of the 24th, and then dissipating it, while the GFS STILL indicates storm development.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
GFS MSLP ANOMALY ANIMATION
The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast still indicates a 45-50% probability of development in the Caribbean during the next 72-96 hours from 12Z this morning, with the highest probabilities moving into the EPAC, and some lower probabilities moving into the GOMEX.
ECMWF TC PROBABILITY FORECAST AND ANIMATION
Right now, based on the discrepancy between the ECMWF and GFS on location of the possible low, it is not written in stone that development is imminent. I believe where the problem lies, is that models could be misinterpreting the forecast location of the CAG. IF development does occur, I believe the catalyst will be a combination of the CAG, and a tropical wave approaching from the east. What kind of gives a hint, is what the NHC mentioned in their tropical weather discussion today, which would reference the CAG:
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form over northern Central America by the end of the week. Winds and seas across the basin may increase through late week as this broad low pressure forms and the ridge north of the area strengthens.
A feature called the CAG (Central American Gyre) could begin to cross into the extreme W. Caribbean.
GFS 850 MB WINDS FORECAST (CAG IN PINK)
Here is an article from WBRZ news explaining the CAG:
It is noted in current satellite loop imagery, there has been an increase in convection over the past 24 hours over the EPAC and Central America.
GOES 16 IR AND SWIR ANIMATION
I know everyone is looking for a “definite” answer as to whether or not we are going to see development. Again, this cannot be safely determined at the moment. However, in my analysis this evening, it appears we should know more between the 21st and 24th, when the forecast favorable conditions should be at peak. Thereafter, both the GFS and ECMWF CHI200 Anomalies forecast indicates a weakening in upward motion. So, in the meantime I will continue to monitor the area for any significant changes. I wouldn’t be too concerned at this time, however please follow my updates, in the event we do see something organizing on satellite imagery.
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Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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