June 30, 2022

Weather News Road Conditions

Weather News & Forecast

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 22, 2022…8:30 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
DONATIONS ACCEPTED AND APPRECIATED

Dog with money

 

weather_1000px
Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat. 
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics are fairly quiet this evening, however there are 2 areas of interest at the moment.  You’ll note in satellite loop imagery a large mid to upper level low near 37.0N; 67.0W.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ATLANTIC LOOP
84356582wide
Analysis this evening shows that area under some very high wind shear right now, and the shear forecast from the ECMWF and GFS indicates wind shear should remain a factor during the next few daysWhile the current ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a good chance for a depression during the next 72 – 96 hours, and a 40 – 45% probability of a Tropical Storm, given shear will be in play, I am not expecting development at the moment, however should anything look as if it is developing, My thoughts are it would be sub-tropical at best, but will most likely be along the lines of an extra-tropical system.  I’ll be looking at this over the next 72 hours to see if any significant changes occur to the forecast pattern.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
wg8shr
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_conus_72
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_conus_72
Elsewhere, we may have an area worth watching.  A well defined Tropical Wave has moved off the African continent, and is located near 7.0N;20.0W.  Based on analysis of vorticity maps from CIMSS, main rotation appears to be at the mid (500 mb) level, with some weaker vorticity beginning to sow up at 850 mb.  The wave looks like it’s organized fairly well in the color IR satellite loop, however the SW (Short Wave) IR loop tells a different story.
EASTERN ATLANTIC COLOR IR SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
84356582
SWIR LOOP IMAGERY
84356582sw
The area is only under 5 – 15 kts of easterly shear at the moment.  Easterly shear is not as much of a hindrance as westerly shear, since the wave and shear are moving basically in the same direction.
CIMSS EAST ATLANTIC SHEAR
wm7shr
Mid level water vapor shows that this wave is pretty much south of the dry air being produced by the SAL:
CIMSS MID LEVEL WATER VAPOR
g16wvmid
Now, the reason I’m stating it may be worth watching, is that the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast indicates a high probability at the moment of this becoming a Tropical Depression as it approaches the Islands, and a 30% probability of becoming a Tropical Storm after entering the Caribbean, and forecast conditions are indicate to slowly improve.  I will not be posting ALL the graphics of the forecast parameters I mention this evening.
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_168
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_192
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_atlantic_240
Based on my analysis of the ECMWF and GFS relative humidity values forecast, and PWAT values, precipitable water is forecast to increase as well as mid level RH values as the wave approaches the Islands, if it makes it that far.  Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate at the moment, that the wind shear pattern is forecast to become more favorable closer to the Islands, with an improving 200 mb streamline pattern.  I will only be posting the ECMWF shear forecast.
ECMWF WIND SHEAR FORECAST 120 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-shear_850v200-6331200
The ECMWF, GFS and CMC models all pick up on lowering pressures, and showing a very weak low, to the CMC indicating development.  The following animations go from 12Z, 25 and 26 JUN, to 12Z on the 29th.
ECMWF MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1655899200-1656244800-1656504000-40
GFS
gfs-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1655920800-1656244800-1656504000-40
CMC
gem-all-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1655899200-1656158400-1656504000-40
Again, being 7 – 10 days out, does not mean development is imminent, however with the forecast conditions presented in the models this evening, some type of development cannot be 100% ruled out.  It was noted as well, the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is forecast to be in Phase 2, based on the Phase Space Diagram forecasts. 
JMA
JMAN_phase_51m_full
GEFS
diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member
ECMWF
ECMF_phase_51m_full
The following indicates where development is favored in the different MJO phases (orange and red).  Left side is actual observations, right side is model forecasts.  The time period on this however is for AUG. – OCT.
VITART MJO PHASES
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART

I will continue to monitor the tropics nightly, and will update the forecast as needed.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-23 00:30:40

All news and articles are copyrighted to the respective authors and/or News Broadcasters. eWeatherNews is an independent Online News Aggregator


Read more from original source here…

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

eWeatherNews.Com | Newsphere by AF themes.