TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 20, 2022…8:15 P. M. EDT

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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

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Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics are fairly quiet this evening.  Based on information contained in the NHC Tropical Weather discussion, and GOES 16 IR satellite loop imagery, two tropical waves were detected, and an area of low pressure that came off Africa the other day was located south of the Cape Verde Islands.  An increase in small convective areas were noted over Africa, with the exception of what appears to be another wave getting ready to leave the African continent.
GOES 16 SATELLITE STILL AND LOOP IMAGERY


AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP

I’m not too concerned at the moment with anything rolling off Africa at the moment, and based on analysis of wind shear, water vapor, and the SAL, I am not expecting anything to develop over the next 5 – 7 days.  You’ll note the very dry air in water vapor imagery, and the “haze” of the SAL in the natural color satellite image.  You’ll note the pink circle I have drawn on the natural color image.  If you look at the clouds, they kind of resemble “popcorn”.  This is a Stratocumulus cloud deck.  This indicates a very stable atmosphere, in other words, there is no vertical lift at the moment, which doesn’t allow for thunderstorm formation.  This is cause by the SAL, which creates an “inversion” (the air in that layer, is warmer than the surrounding environment), which prevents warm moist air from the sea surface rising past that point in the atmosphere.
GOES 16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY

GOES 16 NATURAL COLOR

Though I’m not too concerned right now, the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC indicate lowering of MSLP Anomalies in the northern GOMEX in about 7 – 8 days, which appears to be created from a trof split, to where a piece breaks off and enters the GOMEX.  The models do indicate a lessening of wind shear over the area, and a somewhat favorable 200 mb pattern as far as some type of outflow and diffluent pattern.  The ECMWF EPS Cyclone Probability forecast currently shows around a 35% probability of a tropical depression formation during this time. 
ECMWF, GFS, AND CMC MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALIES FORECAST



ECMWF, GFS AND MC WIND SHEAR FORECAST

ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST


Again, I’m not too concerned at this time, but I’ll be monitoring the area over the next few days to see IF models are consistent in lowering pressures, reducing shear, and maintaining an improved upper pattern in the forecast runs.  I will also be monitoring satellite loop imagery over the next few days for anything that looks suspicious in the tropics.  I may not post every night, as I don’t want to get into the habit of beating a dead horse, but I will take a look at things on a nightly basis.

I haven’t done this in a little while, so here’s an update on SST’s, SSTA’s, and TCHP
CURRENT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

SST ANOMALIES

TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 – 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST