July 21, 2024

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 14, 2024…3:05 P.M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Good day everyone!

There has been a change of plans.  The event my wife and I were to attend has been pushed back.  I will be out of the office from 27 June through 29 June.  I will resume updates upon my return.

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For those who follow me on Facebook, I must ask that you please bookmark this wordpress site, send an email to the address at the bottom of the page to be put on the client email list, or visit my site on Facebook.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/950628219042775

Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

The NHC still maintains a LOW (20%) probability of development with INVEST 90L.  Upon my analysis of satellite loop imagery, you can see the exposed center to the west of the heavy convection, and the effect of wind shear.  In addition, the current TAFB surface analysis map indicates the system beginning to be absorbed by a stalled frontal boundary, and resembles more of an elongated trough.  Based on this, I am making this the last synopsis on INVEST 90L
INVEST 90L SATELLITE LOOPS
INVEST.90L
INVEST.90L.VIS

Elsewhere, the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model still indicates probabilities of development over the southern GOMEX (BOC), and these probabilities are at 90% .  The model has increased Tropical Storm development to 60%.  This is forecast within the 4 – 7 day period in the forecast.
ECMWF TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 96 – 144 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_144
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITY 168 – 192 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_168

The NHC has increased the area to a MEDIUM (50%) probability for development during the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (2)
two_atl_7d2
Based on analysis of the ECMWF and GFS global models, both models seem to indicate a little more favorable conditions developing within that time, with a radial shear pattern, very high PWAT, and very favorable RH values.  The 200 mb streamline forecast is indicating an upper level outflow pattern.  Although it appears to be centered east of where the low center may be located, all the forecast conditions indicate a fairly favorable pattern for development.  Based on this, I feel we should see development of a Tropical Depression over the southern GOMEX within the next 5 – 7 days.  Should the supposed system remain over water long enough, I feel we could even see a brief, minimal Tropical Storm.  Forecast MSLP values suggest about a 45 – 50 kt system.  Should it become named, it would be ALBERTO.  If and when we get development, this will be when I begin posting forecast rainfall values.  Right now, as far as a forecast track, it is way too early in the forecast period to ponder this, as we have to have an actual low center for models to lock onto.  However, this is not to hype the situation, or to worry anyone, but just throwing in some caution.  I noted in forecast motion the GFS has the system hugging the coast along the southern BOC.  However, based on current forecast steering currents, this COULD take more of a motion as suggested by the ECMWF, as forecast steering does no indicate a direct westerly flow.  You’ll note this in the forecast steering graphics, which right now are limited to the GFS and CMC models.
FORECAST STEERING CURRENTS 96 – 108 HOURS
f108
f108.2
gfs_uv_700_850_conus_108
IF the supposed system does track a little further north, portions of extreme S. Texas could experience close to minimal tropical storm force winds.  Again, this COULD change during the next few days.  I’m just showing you what I look at as a forecaster.  In any event, I’m on it!

GOMEX visible satellite loop imagery seems to show the broad low pressure area may be taking shape:
GOMEX VISIBLE LOOP
GOMEXThe following are forecast maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models.  I’ll be using mainly ECMWF graphics.
MSLP ANOMALIES
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1718323200-1718625600-1718884800-80
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1718366400-1718712000-1718884800-80

CMC
gem-all-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1718366400-1718625600-1718884800-80
WIND SHEAR FORECAST / 200 MB STREAMLINE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-shear_850v200-8776800
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-z200_speed-8776800
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR MOISTURE FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-8776800

ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh850-8776800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-8776800
FORECAST SURFACE WIND SPEED ECMWF, GFS, CMC
ecmwf-deterministic-gulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1718323200-1718712000-1718928000-80
gfs-deterministic-gulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1718366400-1718755200-1718884800-80
gem-all-gulf-wnd10m_stream_mph-1718366400-1718798400-1718884800-80
ECMWF AND WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS
ecmwf-wave-gulf-sig_height_wave_dir-1718323200-1718625600-1719036000-40
ww3-gulf-ww3_sig_wave_height_dir-1718366400-1718668800-1718884800-40
GOES 16 IR LOOP
Atlantic.IR
I will continue to monitor the tropics daily for any significant changes and will be monitoring the GOMEX closely during the next 4 – 6 days.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-06-14 19:07:01

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