June 19, 2024

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN 11, 2024…12:00 NOON EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Good day everyone!

There has been a change of plans.  The event my wife and I were to attend has been pushed back.  I will be out of the office from 27 June through 29 June.  I will resume updates upon my return.

Please note!  In regard to the severe weather forecasts, I will try to have them back for ENHANCED areas or above, once some of the models I use for analysis come back up.  They are still down, and contain information I use to provide a more accurate forecast.

Please use the following links regarding severe weather activity:

SPC HOMEPAGE LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

NADOCAST
http://data.nadocast.com/

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For those who follow me on Facebook, I must ask that you please bookmark this wordpress site, send an email to the address at the bottom of the page to be put on the client email list, or visit my site on Facebook.  https://www.facebook.com/groups/950628219042775

Due to the amount of weather groups I belong to, and emails I have to send out, I am not able to post to everyone personally.  In posting personally, it takes about 1 hour to get my information out to everybody.  Thanks for your understanding.

The following is my outlook forecast for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
STORM W’s SEASONAL FORECAST

TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 23 – 26
TOTAL HURRICANES :      12 – 15
MAJOR HURRICANES:        6 – 8

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON:
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

SEASON TOTALS
NAMED STORMS:           0
HURRICANES:                 0
MAJOR HURRICANES:  0

The following are the storm names for the 2024 hurricane season.  As each storm is named, they will be colored in red in order to keep track of the used names in the list:

AlbertoHeleneOscar
BerylIsaacPatty
ChrisJoyceRafael
DebbyKirkSara
ErnestoLeslieTony
FrancineMiltonValerie
GordonNadineWilliam

For those who have followed my over the years, you know as a system approaches the islands, or the U.S. coast, the updates tend to become longer.  However the information is critical, and includes links to the NHC watch and warning areas with information regarding hazards affecting land such as wind, storm surge, rainfall, surf, tornadoes, and specific areas along with any changes to the advisory hazards.  I also post storm surge maps from SLOSH data software, forecast rainfall, watch and warnings maps, etc.  I will also post in general as part of the forecast, animated model maps of the system, current steering layer, etc.  In the meantime, I did a little change, and have posted very good hurricane preparedness links to the site.  Please click the following link to access this information.
https://stormw.wordpress.com/stormws-toolbox/

The NHC has taken an interest in a trough of low pressure which is creating some thunderstorm activity just SW of my area.
GOMEX SATELLITE VIEW
Gomex
The NHC has designated a
LOW (20%) probability of development over the next 7 days.
NHC 7 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_7d1
While the NHC mentions there COULD be a slim prob. for development, analysis of forecast conditions both by the ECMWF and GFS global models indicate wind shear will be over the area in the 72 hour forecast position, as well as drier air moving into the forecast position.  I am not looking for development of this at the moment, and should it begin, this would have the tendency to be more baroclinic in nature, vice barotropic.
BAROCLINIC / BAROTROPIC EXPLANATION
https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/49/

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=bar

ECMWF AND GFS 72 HOURS MSLP / WIND SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-east-mslp_norm_anom-8344800
gfs-deterministic-east-mslp_norm_anom-8344800
ecmwf-deterministic-east-shear_850v200-8344800
gfs-deterministic-east-shear_850v200-8344800
Though current PWAT is ample, the area is under some strong wind shear:
CIMSS PWAT
90L.PWAT
CIMSS CURRENT WIND SHEAR
90L.SHEAR

The area has been designated by both the CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies) and NAVY ATCF (Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting system) as INVEST 90L.  As of the 12Z update from the ATCF BTK report, the following was available on INVEST 90L:
8:00 AM EDT Tue Jun 11
Location: 26.4°N 84.7°W
Moving: ENE at 8 – 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb / 29.80 in
Max sustained: 25 mph
This area will be the beginning of possible excessive rainfall over the Florida peninsula.  I will continue to monitor this area during the next 72 hours for any significant changes to forecast conditions.

Elsewhere,
Analysis of satellite loop imagery indicates a few tropical waves within the ITCZ.  A fairly strong wave is noted near 30W.  The African satellite loops indicate the African wave train from earlier this morning.

GOES 16 IR LOOP
Atlantic.IR
TROPICAL WAVE TRAIN
ATL.WAVES
AFRICASAT
africasat_20240610_1130_animation
The following is from cyclonicwx.com

METEOSAT 10 AFRICAN LOOP
meteosat10_ir_m10full
I know this is getting boring (trust me it feels like groundhog day), the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability model still indicates probabilities of cyclone development IVO the BOC, GOMEX, and toward the Yucatan Channel, with the forecast of lowering surface pressures over these areas in about 96 hours or so.  Although the global models tend to agree, this DOES NOT mean development will definitely occur.  Though the models are indicating less shear (borderline favorable to favorable) over their suggested low centers, multiple low centers are still in the picture with each model.  My take right now, given this scenario with an extremely large area of lowering pressure is, this may be more of a baroclinic setup, vice tropical.  However, again, the bottom line with this is no definite conclusions, until we “see” by the weekend, whether or not convection begins to build over the suspected area, and a LLC (Low Level Circulation) develops, in order to give the models something to “lock” onto.  It is noted in the recent update of the probability forecast maps, that probabilities have increased somewhat.

ECMWF TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST 48 – 96 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_conus_96
120 – 168 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_168
144 – 192 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_carib_192
TROPICAL STORM PROBABILITIES
eps_tropcyc_prob_34_carib_216
3 DAY COMBINED PROBABILITIES 13 – 16 JUN
ecmwf-bufr-conuswide-prob_td_3d-8496000
17 – 20 JUN
ecmwf-bufr-conuswide-prob_td_3d-8841600
There have been no changes in the CHI200 anomalies forecast from the previous posts, however the MJO index is now projecting a weaker signal in the forecast period:

MJO INDEX FORECAST (ACCESS – S2 MODEL)
mjo_rmm.daily.20240609
The following are forecast MSLP anomaly maps from the ECMWF and GFS global models:
ECMWF
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1718064000-1718582400-1718820000-80
GFS
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1718085600-1718539200-1718820000-80
In addition to the forecast marginal to somewhat favorable wind shear conditions, both models are forecasting very high moisture with high PWAT values, and ample RH (Relative Humidity) values from the surface to the mid levels of the atmosphere during the forecast period.
ECMWF AND GFS PWAT / RH FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-8452800

gfs-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-8452800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh850-8452800
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-rh850-8452800
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-8463600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-8452800
Regardless of development, portions of the southern U.S., especially portions of the Florida peninsula, may receive excessive amounts of precipitation based on model projections and the WPC 7 day total precipitation forecast:
WPC 7 DAY TOTAL PRECIPITATION
p168i
ECMWF 10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST

ecmwf-deterministic-florida-total_precip_inch-8928000
GFS
gfs-deterministic-florida-total_precip_inch-8949600
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FORECAST (FIRST MAP LINKED TO SITE…PLEASE CLICK)
94ewbg
98ewbg
99ewbg
The following is the SAL / dust forecast during the next 10 days.
NASA GEOS DUST FORECAST
nasa-geos-all-exatl-dust-1718064000-1718064000-1718928000-40
I will continue to monitor the tropics daily for any significant changes and will be monitoring the GOMEX during the next 5 – 7 days.

The following NWS Watch / Warning map will provide local NWS information for your area.  Click the image, then once it refreshes, click on your area of interest to view any special weather statements, hazards or advisories for your area.
NWS WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY (LINKED…CLICK MAP, THEN YOUR AREA)

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (LINKED, CLICK RADAR MAP)
canvas.radr_.us_
RAP RADAR (CLICK IMAGE THEN GO TO LOOP DURATION AND PICK LENGTH OF LOOP, THEN CLICK RADAR SITE)
CARIBBEAN RADAR (CLICK IMAGE TO ACCESS ANIMATION)
radar_comp_Eng
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

 

 

 

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc.

I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.

palmharborforecastcenter

2024-06-11 15:59:02

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