June 26, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUN. 11, 2022…10:55 A. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

For those who have donated to my site, your help has been greatly appreciated.  If you are not aware, donations to my site help pay for subscriptions to sites I use as well as software updates, which provide all the models and information used in my forecasts.  To donate, please click the DONATE button to the right side of the page, or on the graphic of the dog.  Any help you provide is immensely appreciated!
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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

From here on out, I will be moving away from severe weather forecasts, unless the threat is forecast to produce an outbreak, or significant tornadoes.  Then, I’ll break from tropical weather and report on any severe weather.  Again, please remember, my forte and specialty is tropical storms and hurricanes.  Given I work until late afternoon, I cannot analyze and write a synopsis for both.  I will post the SPC link for you to visit and stay updated on any severe weather threat.  Thanks for your understanding.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good day everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 1
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS:
0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on analysis this morning, satellite loop imagery indicates an area of rotation has formed in the mid levels near Nicaragua, along with some heavy thunderstorm activity.
GOES 16 SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES (ATLANTIC AND AFRICA)
59721174ir
59721174
59721174wide
AFRICASAT
Current 500 mb vorticity from CIMSS does confirm this is currently confined to the mid levels, and you’ll note a weak “circulation” in the low to mid level winds map.
CIMSS 500 MB VORTICITY
wg8vor2
CIMSS LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND
wg8ir
The area is currently under approximately 25-30 knots of shear.  However, the area is currently east of an upper level trof, which is enhancing diffluence, hence the flareup of convection.
CIMSS WIND SHEAR
wg8shr
It appears this may be associated with once again, the CAG (Central American Gyre), which I have outlined in the following GFS 850 mb wind vector graphic.  This feature is forecast to to become more elongated over the next 5 days.  This may be what the GFS has been picking up on.  However, the GFS is still the only global model indicating an area of low pressure to develop by the 17th, and has backed down from forecasting a hurricane in the GOMEX, to pretty much a broad area of low pressure meandering around out to day 10 (240 hours) in the forecast period.  Around that time frame, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate an improvement in the shear pattern, and a more diffluent 200 mb pattern.
GFS 850 MB WIND VECTORS
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f012.camerica
GFS MSLP ANOMALIES FORECAST DAYS 7-10
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-mslp_norm_anom-1654927200-1655553600-1655791200-40
ECMWF AND GFS SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5553600
gfs-deterministic-caribbean-shear_850v200-5553600
Analysis of both the ECMWF and GFS indicate during the time frame, RH and PWAT values will again be high, which is a favorable condition in development, however the SAL could be an inhibiting factor as the forecast shows dust entering the area.  I will be using the ECMWF graphic only for the moisture forecast.
ECMWF PWAT AND 500 MB RH FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-pwat-5467200
ecmwf-deterministic-caribbean-rh500-5467200
NASA GEOS DUST FORECAST DAYS 6-10
nasa-geos-all-caribbean-dust-1654905600-1655467200-1655769600-40
Based on analysis of the ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Probability forecast for development of a tropical depression, it does provide a “hint” of a probability in the BOC area, however it appears this may be an EPAC event, as there is another INVEST noted in the EPAC.  Analysis of current and forecast steering layer winds from the surface to mid level indicates at the moment, this “circulation” should move over land during the next few days, toward the W to WNW.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST (TROPICAL DEPRESSION)
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_216
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_240
In a nutshell, I am not concerned right now about this area, and would convey to the reader, not to have anxiety over this.  I will be monitoring the areas of the W. Caribbean and Yucatan over the next few days to see if any significant changes in the forecast pattern occur.

Meanwhile, after mid month, it appears we may be heading into a quieter period, as the forecast for upward motion based on CHI200 anomalies from the JMA and ECMWF EPS indicate we lose upward motion with sinking air occurring, noted by the orange and red colors in the forecast maps.  This indicates pretty much a non conducive pattern over the Atlantic, with the exception in that upward vertical velocities may remain over the E. Atlantic, which could allow for stronger tropical waves.  However, once within the unfavorable portion of the Atlantic, I wouldn’t count on development.
JMA CHI200 FORECAST JUNE 11 – JUNE 17
jma.1

JUNE 18 – JUNE 24
jma.2
JUNE 25 – JULY 08
jma.3
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022061100_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022061100_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022061100_CONTROL_360
Elsewhere, I do not anticipate tropical storm formation during the next 7 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-06-11 14:53:23

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