December 6, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 31, 2022…6:25 P. M. EDT

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Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

I wanted to make known again, I will be on vacation during the “peak” of the hurricane season (AUG. 29 – SEP 09), on an Alaskan cruise.  I will not have the capability to update during that time.  Please refer to the NHC.  You’ll note various links underneath the header/banner on the page such as the National Hurricane Center, Active Watches and Warnings NWS Hazard and Warnings Display, Satellite and Radar Page (etc.)  These are linked to their respective sites and should provide you with ample information.

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics still remain very quiet as of this evenings analysis.  You’ll note there is still a significant amount of dry air in the water vapor loop image.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATIONS (IR AND WATER VAPOR)
43169437
43169437wv
I know a lot of you are anxious for activity to pick up, as am I.  However, we are still in that portion of the hurricane season where the “climatological” ramp up doesn’t really begin until after AUG. 05. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY CLIMATOLOGY GRAPH (POINTING TO AUG. 05)
atlantic_climo_1851-2014.2
I know we were expecting an uptick toward the end of this month, however, the forecast CHI200 anomalies pattern and MJO phase space diagrams did not pan out yet, as was shown in the previous forecast.  Based on what  have seen over this past week, the modeling was definitely overdone as far as both coverage and amplitude of the signal.  However, ensemble models have updated (JMA is still the same from Thursday, as it only updates on a weekly basis), and the JMA and ECMWF EPS systems have become in better agreement as far as amplitude and coverage of the anomalies.  Based on this, the forecast still indicates the MJO going into a phase 2 signal, which is the more favorable phase for tropical activity out of the 8 phases.  Once again, IF (and I stress IF) these signals come to fruition, we should see the African wave train begin to roll, in which I still believe we will see a very active season.  Maybe not hyperactive, however I do believe I should make at least the low end of my seasonal forecast.  I know as dead as it has been all of July, folks my be having doubts, and could in fact be correct.  However, I am going to point out some of the “signals” that point to a busy season.  I will compare them to the hurricane season of last year, to which we had a total of 21 named storms.
JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST AUG. 06 – AUG. 12, 2022jma.2
AUG. 13 – AUG. 26, 2022jma.3
ECMWF CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST AUG. 05, 2022 – AUG. 10, 2022eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022073112_CONTROL_240
AUG. 10, 2022 – AUG. 15, 2022
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022073112_CONTROL_360
CURRENT BOM AUSTRALIAN MODEL MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
mjo_rmm.daily.20220729
The ECMWF EPS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability forecast is still showing an increase of probabilities in days 10 – 12:
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITIES FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_288

The following are the current SST anomalies for the Tropical Atlantic.  The setup you see, is what we refer to as the Atlantic Ocean Tripole (warm over cool, over warm).  This profile allows for maximum net lift over the MDR.  This is a favorable development signal.  You’ll note, this was not present during the same time in 2021.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC SST ANOMALIES JUL 30 2022
oisst_anom_1d_tropatl_2022073000
JUL 31, 2021
oisst_anom_1d_tropatl_2021073100
The updated forecast for the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) still indicates we remain in a fairly negative IOD (colder anomalies western Indian Ocean, warmer in the eastern Indian Ocean), which should negate subsidence over central Africa, westward.  The following graphics indicate a negative IOD currently, and a less negative IOD in 2021 during the same time
CURRENT INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE (NEGATIVE) JUL 30, 2022
oisst_anom_1d_sio_2022073000
IOD JUL 31, 2021
oisst_anom_1d_sio_2021073100
Based on update ENSO information, we are currently in a neutral, strong cold bias pattern, however some La Nina like signals still remain in the atmosphere.  The majority of the climate modeling however indicates a very good chance at returning to a La Nina pattern by Oct.  La Nina did weaken during the month of June, however it appears cooler anomalies have made a comeback.
SST ANOMALIES JUN 30, 2022
oisst_anom_1d_globe_2022063000
JUL 30, 2022
oisst_anom_1d_globe_2022073000
Now, compare the NINO 3.4 region for the same period of 2021
SST ANOMALIES JUL 31, 2021
oisst_anom_1d_globe_2021073100
The stronger the cooler anomalies, the less wind shear becomes over the Atlantic basin.

The final positive factor I wanted to point out is, TCHP / OHC (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential / Ocean Heat Content) is almost off the charts, especially over the W. Caribbean and central GOMEX.  SST’s alone are warm enough from 45.0 degrees west, westward, to allow development.  The TCHP from the same point, will not only sustain a hurricane, values are high enough to support a major hurricane.  Based on my past research, values of 50+ are enough to accomplish this.  So, based on all of these favorable factors I have gone over, I am lead to believe we should still witness a fairly active season, once it ramps up.
CURRENT TCHP
tcheat_atlantic_2022073112
I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-31 22:25:59

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