August 15, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 28, 2022…8:05 P. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics remain quiet as of this evenings analysis. 
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATIONS (IR AND WATER VAPOR)
14071569
14071569wv

You’ll note in water vapor loop imagery, that the majority of the Atlantic basin still contains a good amount of dry air.  Hence, once again, a more stable environment.  There is what’s left of the tropical wave we saw near Africa a few days ago, now near 40.0W.  One problem for this is the drier air, and a large mid to upper level low pressure system north of the wave.  This is currently a major hindrance.  However, if you refer back to the water vapor loop, you’ll still see moisture over what you can see of west Africa.  Looking at this carefully in my analysis, and looking at the way the pattern over the Atlantic has been acting, the recent update of the JMA CHI200 anomalies forecast pretty much matches the dry air pattern currently noted in water vapor imagery.  If you remember from my last update, I mentioned that I believed the models were “bullish” on the strong upward vertical velocities they were showing with the very dark green and dark blue anomalies.  With “that” previous forecast, we should have been witnessing stronger, and more numerous waves by around this time.  However, that has failed to occur.  Low and behold however, the updated forecast indicates a much weaker signal, however still favorable for cyclone development, but now pushed a week back to around AUG. 05 – 06.
JMA ENSEMBLE CHI200 ANOMALIES UPDATED FORECAST JUL. 30 – AUG. 05
jma.1
AUG. 06 – AUG. 12
jma.2
AUG. 13 – AUG. 26
jma.3

Looking at African satellite loop imagery, you will note thunderstorm activity has increased somewhat, and some convection appears a little further north than what we have seen, pretty much over some of the Sahel region.  Should this continue, we could see a reduction in African dust, but by how much is unknown.  Water vapor imagery also shows a more expansive area of moisture, which seems to be pushing the drier air out of some of the region
AFRICA CLOUD TOP AND WATER VAPOR LOOP IMAGERY
sat_20220728_2330_animation
sat_20220728_2200_animation

Analysis of the global models indicated no development during the next 10 days, and the ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast doesn’t indicate any probabilities off the African coast until days 10 – 12.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY MAP
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_288

I know, I hear ya, I’m ready for some action too!  Based on putting this all together, we may have to wait through the first week of Aug. for action to increase.  As I’ve stated previously, my forecasts are only as good as the information I have to work with.  One thing for certain though, with the updated forecast information, one of two things is going to happen…either my seasonal forecast is going to be a bust, or we’re in for one hell of a remaining season.  I know it’s dead right now, however bear in mind, the season does not really ramp up until the start of Aug.  I looked at a couple seasons regarding the ONI temperatures, but mainly trend.  Since the warm phase of the AMO (which began back in 1995), which we are still in, two of the closest seasons which represent trends of the current ONI forecast for JAS (July, Aug, Sep) and ASO (Aug, Sep, Oct), are the seasons of 2011 and 2021.  During 2021, we had no storms develop in Jul.  Then, in Aug.  we wound up with 7 total storms, and 8 total storms in Sep.  In 2011, we had 4 storms, prior to the start of Aug.  We had 7 storms develop in Aug., and 6 in Sep.  So, pretty much going to be a wait and see situation.  However, IF the same occurrence comes to fruition, based on 2021, with the 3 storms already named, that would put us at 18 total through Sep., and 16 total based on the 2011 season.

I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-29 00:02:26

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