August 15, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 26, 2022…8:15 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics remain still relatively quiet as of this evenings analysis, with only one tropical wave of note, located near 10.0N;25.0W.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE ANIMATIONS (IR, SWIR AND WATER VAPOR)
68330280ir

68330280

68330280wv

There is notable rotation with this wave, and analysis of current vorticity maps indicates vorticity up through mid level, or 500 mb.  This began looking decent last night, and looked as if it was beginning to slowly organize.  However, close analysis this evening of the vorticity maps, and water vapor imagery, there is a mid level low just to the NNE of this wave which is mainly wrapped in dry air, which is notable in the airmass graphic.  It was noted that the feature mentioned, has a larger area of vorticity from the surface, up to 500 mb.  This feature appears to be hindering the wave in that it most likely could be driving dry air into the wave, based on it’s cyclonic motion which would be pushing air into the wave from the NNE.  Analysis of the SWIR (Short Wave Infrared) animation, some minor arc clouds were noted within the wave, which would tend to indicate some dry air intrusion.  Easterly shear was around 10 – 15 kts from the “center”, northward, and 20+ kts over the southern half.  
CIMSS AIRMASS ANALYSIS
g16airmass

This is somewhat perplexing, as you can see how moisture continues to increase over western Africa, with dry air slowly diminishing.  We are also now into Phase 1 of the MJO, which is supposed to still enter Phase 2 in about 3 – 4 days, based on current information.  These two phases are supposed to be the more favorable phases of the MJO for development.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast does indicate a 45 – 50% probability during the next 72 hours, however drops the wave thereafter.  A quick look at the global models ECMWF and GFS this evening finds that neither show development over the next 7 – 10 days.  BOTH models also indicate in kind of an  on and off pattern, easterly shear weakening then becoming very strong, and weakening over west Africa the next 7 – 10 days.  This doesn’t seem to correlate with what the MJO vertical velocities show in the forecast from the ECMWF EPS, with upward motion over Africa and eastern Atlantic up until AUG 10.  It is noted, the signal for this has weakened however, which leads me to believe the models were bullish in their initialization and previous 2 forecast cycles.  Vertical instability has been increasing rather quickly over the tropical Atlantic (MDR), which you can see is located from the Equator to 20.0N.
ECMWF EPS TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY 24 – 72 HOURS
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_72
ECMWF EPS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST FROM WEATHERMODELS.COM
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022072612_CONTROL_120
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022072612_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022072612_CONTROL_360
CURRENT MDR VERTICAL INSTABILITY (BLACK LINE IS CLIMATOLOGY)
ts_al_tat_THDV
IF vertical instability continues to ramp up, and the MJO forecast pans out, my thinking is we should still see an increase in activity at the end of the month (i.e. more numerous and stronger waves).  Don’t forget though, based on climatology, we are still in a fairly quiet portion of the season.
WeatherUnderGroundAtlanticHurrSeasonImage_plainbackground.2

I will be monitoring the current wave in case conditions change to a more favorable pattern.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-27 00:11:26

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