August 19, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 21, 2022…9:00 P. M. EDT

7 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

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https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics remain quiet as of this evenings analysis.  There is somewhat of an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity within the ITCZ/Monsoon trof, however nothing really significant.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 SATELLITE STILL IMAGE (CIRCLED AREA SHOWING ITCZ)
GOES16_1km_ir_202207212315_0.00_50.00_-103.00_5.00_ir1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds
GOES 16 IR LOOP
32199372ir
Even though based on the current updated forecast, the MJO is beginning to enter the Basin, there is still quite a large amount of mid level dry air over the majority of the Atlantic Basin.  This would indicate large scale sinking air over the Atlantic.  The following is recent water vapor loop imagery, in which the orange/red, and “dark” areas indciate drier air.  Moisture does seem to keep slowly improving over the western portion of the African continent.  However, recent African satellite imagery indicates moisture to be limited at the moment.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 WATER VAPOR LOOP
32199372

AFRICAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (CLOUD TOPS AND WATER VAPOR)AFRICASATsat_20220721_2230_animation
Imagery from CIMSS also indicates dry air (reddish colors) over the basin and some portions of west Africa
CIMSS RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY
g16airmass-2
The following natural color image shows instability, by the stratocumulus cloud layer (circled).  These clouds are associated with a stable atmospheric environment.  The graph below it, represents vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic, with the black line representing climatology.  Right now, vertical instability is still well below climatology.  While the current updates to the forecast CHI200 anomalies indicate a favorable signal for the upcoming week, through the month of August, I wouldn’t look for any waves to survive until we see the vertical instability graph begin to climb toward climatology.
CIMSS NATURAL COLOR SATELLITE
g16nc-1
TROPICAL ATLANTIC VERTICAL INSTABILITY GRAPH
ts_al_tat_THDV
Speaking of the CHI200 Anomalies and MJO, the information updated today.  The JMA is indicating favorable anomalies to begin by this weekend, and through the entire month of August.  Albeit the modeling has backed off on the strong signal it was showing in last weeks update, the signal still indicates upward motion over the African continent and Atlantic basin, as indicated by the blue shading.  The update indicates a brief phase 1, however overall, phase 2 seems to be the more dominate phase.  You can compare the anomalies to the MJO phase diagram graphic.  The ECMWF EPS updated as well, however based on the JMA and current analysis of the MJO phase space diagrams, the ECMWF EPS may be overdone on signal strength.  As a reminder to what you are looking at, these maps represent the 200 mb level (Approximately 35, 000 ft – 41, 000 ft) of the atmosphere.  Where you see the orange / red colors, this represents downward vertical velocities, or “sinking” air.  Again, as air sinks from the upper, and pressures increase, the air “compresses” and heats, thereby warming the atmosphere and drying it out, hence, no convection (which is what we are witnessing at the moment).  The green / blue colors indicate air rising in the upper atmosphere.  This creates a “void” at the surface, so the void has to be filled.  This is completed by surface convergence, or air rushing in toward the center of the void, and as the air collides, it rises in a column, which allows for the formation of clouds and convection.  This process also lowers surface pressures somewhat.  The following links provide an explanation of the MJO:
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap12/mjo.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation

JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST JUL 23 – JUL 29
jma.1
JUL 30 – AUG 05
jma.2
AUG 06 – AUG 19
jma.3
28 DAYS MEAN
jma.4
MJO PHASES DIAGRAM
mjo. phases
TC DEVELOPMENT (ORANGE/RED) IN RELATION TO MJO PHASES
Tropical-storm-density-anomalies-1000-as-a-function-of-MJO-phases-in-left
Analysis of updated phase space diagrams indciate a good majority of the models swinging into phase 1 briefly, and moving into phase 2.
NCEP GEFS
diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member
ECMWF (YELLOW LINES INDICATE ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS)
ECMF_phase_51m_small
JMAN
JMAN_phase_51m_small
BOM ACCESS-S2
mjo_rmm.daily.20220719
Based on my past experience using the CH1200 anomalies forecast and MJO phase space diagrams, and the following excerpt from an article written by Dr. Phil Klotzbach (et. al), I still believe we won’t see a significant uptick in activity, until toward the end of the month.  This is IF the current MJO forecast comes to fruition, although for the past 3 weeks or so, these updates have been fairly consistent.

It is well known that tropical cyclones (TCs) around the globe tend to cluster in time and space (Gray 1979). For example, during the very active 1995 Atlantic basin hurricane season that had a total of 19 named storms, 5 storms formed during the 7-day period between 22 and 28 August. Following this flurry of activity, only one TC formed between 29 August and 27 September during the climatologically most active period of the Atlantic TC season. Also, in 2008, during another active Atlantic hurricane season where 16 named storms formed, 4 storms formed between 25 August and 2 September followed by no tropical cyclone formations between 2 and 25 September.

Because of this observed clustering, the MJO has been considered a likely modulator of TC activity. Maloney and Hartmann (2000) documented that Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean tropical cyclogenesis was 4 times more likely to occur when lower-tropospheric MJO wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific were westerly than when they were easterly. Mo (2000) demonstrated that TC activity in the Atlantic was most enhanced when the convectively enhanced phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, of which the MJO was the dominant signal, was located over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection was located over the tropical Pacific. Maloney and Shaman (2008) show that TC activity in the east Atlantic tends to be suppressed about 5–10 days before a maximum in regional precipitation over the east Atlantic and West Africa, while TC activity is enhanced about 5–10 days after the maximum in regional precipitation.

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes over the next couple of weeks, and will update as needed.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-22 00:55:09

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