November 30, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 18, 2022…8:30 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The tropics are still fairly quiet this evening, with a majority of the Atlantic Basin being affected by dry, mid level air.  However, the wave that has just exited the African Continent has seemed to come together nicely over the past 24 hours.  There does appear to be a small area of organized convection, however the low level circulation is just NNW of the convection, and satellite loop imagery may indicate this may be within a broad area of low pressure.  Analysis this evening of both the 925 mb and 850 mb wind vectors from the CPC African desk indciate a closed circulation at both levels, however only a partial circulation was noted at 700 mb, and none at 500 mb.  Right now, the dry air noted in water vapor imagery is pulling ahead of this wave, so it does have some moisture to work with.
WEATHERNERDS GOES SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY ATLANTIC WIDE
44150989
EASTERN ATLANTIC IR, WATER VAPOR, AND SHORTWAVE IR LOOP IMAGES
66791538ir
66791538
66791538swir
GFS 925 MB AND 850 MB WIND VECTORS
gfs.t12z.925mb_wind.f012.wafrica
gfs.t12z.850mb_wind.f012.wafrica
Based on analysis of the forecast MSLP anomalies maps from the global models, though this starts out looking somewhat strong, models do not indciate any development thus far of this feature.  One item that may hinder this, is the area is currently under some 20 – 25 knots of wind shear.  Based on the forecast, the speed of the shear reduces somewhat, however the area is forecast to remain under easterly shear.  Although easterly shear is not as bad as westerly shear, as the flow is moving with the system, the shear pattern does not become radial, and upper level winds at 200 mb are forecast to remain pretty much zonal during the next 4 – 5 days which indicates divergence aloft should be minimal.   Although the wave has some decent moisture to work with at the moment, the models indicate by Thursday, it will get tangled in the dry air at the mid levels (500 mb), based on the 500 mb RH forecast.  These factors are most likely why the models are not showing development.  The ECMWF EPS cyclone probability forecast shows some weak probabilities over the next 4-7 days, but nothing to really get excited about. Again,  based on the CHI200 anomalies forecast which show some very strong upward motion anomalies from around 30.0W longitude to over the African continent from both the JMA forecast from last week (which will update on Thursday), and the recent ECMWF EPS, and the Australian ACCESS-S2 ensembles model which indicates a strong PHASE 1 and PHASE 2 forecast of the MJO, we may have to wait closer to the mid portion of next week, to months end, before we may see something able to sustain itself.  The three global models, ECMWF, GFS and CMC ALL differ on their forecast regarding the CH1200 anomalies upward motion forecast.  However in my years of forecasting, especially the last 3 seasons, the JMA has been fairly spot on with the CH1200 anomalies forecast, and for a good portion of these forecasts, development has occurred when the favorable (upward motion) signal is present as indicated in the CHI200 anomalies forecast maps.
ECMWF MSLP ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_norm_anom-1658145600-1658145600-1658750400-40
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_168
ECMWF AND GFS CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST (ECMWF WILL BE IN MOTION)
ecmwf-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-1658145600-1658145600-1658750400-40
gfs-deterministic-exatl-chi200_anom-8772000
ECMWF EPS AND JMA (CURRENT) CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022071812_CONTROL_240
eps_chi200_anomaly_globe_2022071812_CONTROL_360
jma.2
jma.3
BOM AUSTRALIA ACCESS-S2 ENSEMBLE MJO FORECAST
mjo_rmm.daily.20220716

I will continue to monitor the tropics for any significant changes over the next 10 days and will update as needed, and will try to update when the new JMA forecast comes out on Thursday.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-19 00:27:10

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