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(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)
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STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES : 7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES: 4 – 6
AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES: 7
MAJOR HURRICANES: 3
2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES: 0
MAJOR HURRICANES: 0
U. S. LANDFALLS: 0
The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter
As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season
2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will
Based on analysis this morning, the tropical Atlantic has returned to a quiet state. Satellite loop imagery shows a couple tropical waves, however there is nothing significant noted. Weak tropical waves were noted over the African Continent.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP
Based on analysis of the JMA CHI200 Anomalies forecast, updated on THU., we are currently in a “suppressed” phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). The current anomalies indicate strong sinking motion from the 200 mb level. As air from the upper atmosphere sinks, it compresses. As air compresses, it warms, thereby having a drying effect on the atmosphere, thus suppressing any convective activity. You can pretty much pick out the drier air, which is currently courtesy of the SAL
CIMSS RGB AIRMASS SATELLITE STILL IMAGE
The following is an hour long video from NOAA, explaining pretty much what you’d like to know on the MJO. The link for the article following the video, is from the AMS Journal, authored by Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
NOAA MJO VIDEO
AMS JOURNAL ARTICLE
The forecast of the CHI200 anomalies updates every Thursday, so the signal could change. However, IF the current forecast is correct, we may begin to see an uptick in tropical activity, as the forecast for weeks 3 and 4 indicate a definite PHASE 2 signal regarding the Madden – Julian Oscillation. You can use the following MJO phase graphic to match it against the CHI200 anomaly forecast for weeks 3 and 4.
MJO PHASE DIAGRAM
JMA ENSEMBLE CHI200 FORECAST WEEK 1
WEEK 3 AND 4
Based on this, we could see an increase in activity, my best guess is, around the 21st of the month, as based on the preceding article from Dr. Klotzbach, tropical cyclone activity is usually enhanced 5 – 10 days AFTER the maximum in regional precipitation (or in other words, about 5 – 10 days after the rising motion of the MJO becomes established). Excerpt from the article:
Because of this observed clustering, the MJO has been considered a likely modulator of TC activity. Maloney and Hartmann (2000) documented that Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean tropical cyclogenesis was 4 times more likely to occur when lower-tropospheric MJO wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific were westerly than when they were easterly. Mo (2000) demonstrated that TC activity in the Atlantic was most enhanced when the convectively enhanced phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, of which the MJO was the dominant signal, was located over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection was located over the tropical Pacific. Maloney and Shaman (2008) show that TC activity in the east Atlantic tends to be suppressed about 5–10 days before a maximum in regional precipitation over the east Atlantic and West Africa, while TC activity is enhanced about 5–10 days after the maximum in regional precipitation. Barrett and Leslie (2009), using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s real-time MJO index, documented that storms were 4 times more likely to make landfall along the U.S. coastline when the MJO had a large amplitude and convection was enhanced at 120°W.
The following indicates where development can occur in MJO various phases
VITART MJO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
It is noted that SST’s are quite warm, and TCHP is pretty much almost off the chart from the Caribbean to the GOMEX.
CURRENT SST ANOMALIES
Based on the analysis of the SST 7 day anomalies map, you’ll note I have circled the warm and colder anomalies. This setup, albeit not a perfect representation, is the Atlantic Ocean Tripole. The warm over cold over warm setup is a more favorable pattern for tropical development over the MDR region. Pretty much in a nutshell, where the colder anomalies are, represents sinking air do to higher pressure anomalies, and rising air over the orange and red areas.
ATLANTIC OCEAN TRIPOLE
So far, the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) has been following the forecast from the climate models, which indicate the IOD to become greatly negative during the peak of the season. The following is the current IOD SST anomalies indicating a negative IOD, and my explanation
INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALIES
During a positive IOD phase, you’ll notice the “Walker” circulation allowing for an increase in convection and rain near east Africa. The rising air causes lower pressure and precipitation at the ocean surface. You’ll see on the eastern side of the circulation, air sinks to the surface, causing higher pressure at the surface and drier conditions. Well, it just so happens, this exact flow happens on the western portion of the circulation. The air rises, and as it reaches the upper portion of the atmosphere, it cools, then begins to sink (higher pressure). As this air in the upper atmosphere sinks, it compresses and heats, drying out the air, hence the “lack” of convection for easterly waves. A negative IOD phase has the opposite effect. As the air “sinks” over the western Indian Ocean, it spreads out over the surface, and across eastern Africa. The pattern then continues with the air “rising” over central Africa, allowing for, or aiding in the formation of convection.
IOD SST ANOMALIES NEGATIVE / POSITIVE
IOD POSITIVE PHASE
IOD NEUTRAL PHASE
IOD NEGATIVE PHASE
Last but not least, the current wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic at the moment is below climatology (black line), however vertical instability is currently below climatology.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR
So, for those waiting for more tropical activity…be patient. IF the forecast conditions pan out with the current conditions, we should see an increase in the time period I have mentioned.
Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 days.
You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: email@example.com
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST
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