August 15, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED JUL. 04, 2022…10:45 A. M. EDT

6 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather.  I will be taking Sundays off (family time), unless we have active systems that may be posing a threat (i.e. Tropical, Winter Weather, Coastal Storms, etc.).

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good day and Happy Fourth of July everyone!
266544-Happy-Fourth-Of-July

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

Based on analysis this morning, the tropical Atlantic has returned to a quiet state.  Satellite loop imagery shows a couple tropical waves, however there is nothing significant noted.  Weak tropical waves were noted over the African Continent.
WEATHERNERDS GOES 16 TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATELLITE LOOP
36729829
AFRICA SATELLITE LOOP
AFRICASAT
Based on analysis of the JMA CHI200 Anomalies forecast, updated on THU., we are currently in a “suppressed” phase of the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation).  The current anomalies indicate strong sinking motion from the 200 mb level.  As air from the upper atmosphere sinks, it compresses.  As air compresses, it warms, thereby having a drying effect on the atmosphere, thus suppressing any convective activity.  You can pretty much pick out the drier air, which is currently courtesy of the SAL
CIMSS RGB AIRMASS SATELLITE STILL IMAGE
g16airmass-1

The following is an hour long video from NOAA, explaining pretty much what you’d like to know on the MJO.  The link for the article following the video, is from the AMS Journal, authored by Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
NOAA MJO VIDEO
https://youtu.be/atZ5Ibxbx3o

AMS JOURNAL ARTICLE
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/23/2/2009jcli2978.1.xml

The forecast of the CHI200 anomalies updates every Thursday, so the signal could change.  However, IF the current forecast is correct, we may begin to see an uptick in tropical activity, as the forecast for weeks 3 and 4 indicate a definite PHASE 2 signal regarding the Madden – Julian Oscillation.  You can use the following MJO phase graphic to match it against the CHI200 anomaly forecast for weeks 3 and 4.
MJO PHASE DIAGRAM
mjo. phases
JMA ENSEMBLE CHI200 FORECAST WEEK 1
jma.1
WEEK 2
jma.2
WEEK 3 AND 4
jma.3
Based on this, we could see an increase in activity, my best guess is, around the 21st of the month, as based on the preceding article from Dr. Klotzbach, tropical cyclone activity is usually enhanced 5 – 10 days AFTER the maximum in regional precipitation (or in other words, about 5 – 10 days after the rising motion of the MJO becomes established).  Excerpt from the article:

Because of this observed clustering, the MJO has been considered a likely modulator of TC activity. Maloney and Hartmann (2000) documented that Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean tropical cyclogenesis was 4 times more likely to occur when lower-tropospheric MJO wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific were westerly than when they were easterly. Mo (2000) demonstrated that TC activity in the Atlantic was most enhanced when the convectively enhanced phase of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, of which the MJO was the dominant signal, was located over eastern Africa and the Indian Ocean and suppressed convection was located over the tropical Pacific. Maloney and Shaman (2008) show that TC activity in the east Atlantic tends to be suppressed about 5–10 days before a maximum in regional precipitation over the east Atlantic and West Africa, while TC activity is enhanced about 5–10 days after the maximum in regional precipitation. Barrett and Leslie (2009), using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s real-time MJO index, documented that storms were 4 times more likely to make landfall along the U.S. coastline when the MJO had a large amplitude and convection was enhanced at 120°W.

The following indicates where development can occur in MJO various phases
VITART MJO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
Same-as-Figure-2-MJO VITART

It is noted that SST’s are quite warm, and TCHP is pretty much almost off the chart from the Caribbean to the GOMEX.
SST MAP
oisst_tropatl_2022070200
TCHP MAP
tcheat_atlantic_2022070312
CURRENT SST ANOMALIES
oisst_anom_1d_globe_2022070200
Based on the analysis of the SST 7 day anomalies map, you’ll note I have circled the warm and colder anomalies.  This setup, albeit not a perfect representation, is the Atlantic Ocean Tripole.  The warm over cold over warm setup is a more favorable pattern for tropical development over the MDR region.  Pretty much in a nutshell, where the colder anomalies are, represents sinking air do to higher pressure anomalies, and rising air over the orange and red areas. 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TRIPOLE
oisst_anom_7d_tropatl_2022070200
So far, the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) has been following the forecast from the climate models, which indicate the IOD to become greatly negative during the peak of the season.  The following is the current IOD SST anomalies indicating a negative IOD, and my explanation
INDIAN OCEAN SST ANOMALIES
oisst_anom_1d_sio_2022070200
During a positive IOD phase, you’ll notice the “Walker” circulation allowing for an increase in convection and rain near east Africa.  The rising air causes lower pressure and precipitation at the ocean surface.  You’ll see on the eastern side of the circulation, air sinks to the surface, causing higher pressure at the surface and drier conditions.  Well, it just so happens, this exact flow happens on the western portion of the circulation.  The air rises, and as it reaches the upper portion of the atmosphere, it cools, then begins to sink (higher pressure).  As this air in the upper atmosphere sinks, it compresses and heats, drying out the air, hence the “lack” of convection for easterly waves.  A negative IOD phase has the opposite effect.  As the air “sinks” over the western Indian Ocean, it spreads out over the surface, and across eastern Africa.  The pattern then continues with the air “rising” over central Africa, allowing for, or aiding in the formation of convection.
IOD SST ANOMALIES NEGATIVE / POSITIVE

IOD POSITIVE PHASE

IOD NEUTRAL PHASE

IOD NEGATIVE PHASE

Last but not least, the current wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic at the moment is below climatology (black line), however vertical instability is currently below climatology.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC WIND SHEAR
ts_al_tat_VSHD
VERTICAL INSTABILITY
ts_al_tat_THDV
So, for those waiting for more tropical activity…be patient.  IF the forecast conditions pan out with the current conditions, we should see an increase in the time period I have mentioned.

Elsewhere, I do not anticipate Tropical Storm Formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

 

 

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-07-04 14:46:52

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