February 4, 2023

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 07, 2022…6:30 P. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good evening everyone!

I wanted to make known again, I will be on vacation during the “peak” of the hurricane season (AUG. 29 – SEP 09), on an Alaskan cruise.  I will not have the capability to update during that time.  Please refer to the NHC.  You’ll note various links underneath the header/banner on the page such as the National Hurricane Center, Active Watches and Warnings NWS Hazard and Warnings Display, Satellite and Radar Page (etc.)  These are linked to their respective sites and should provide you with ample information.

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON NAMES:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

I am watching 2 waves in the Tropical Atlantic.  One is located near 33.0W longitude, and the other has almost completely exited the African continent.  Satellite imagery this evening shows an increase in convection with the wave near 33W, as well as the wave off the African coast.  Based on analysis of various satellite  loop channels, the wave near 33W appears to have more spin with it.  It did appear that the wave the NHC is interested in is beginning to display very weak rotation, however I could not detect anything solid at the moment.  The NHC has issued a MEDIUM (40%) probability for development during the next 5 days.  I find it strange the NHC doesn’t show an interest in the wave at 33W, given the CIMSS shear map shows a radial shear pattern overhead.
WEATHERNERDS EATL SATELLITE LOOP (INFRARED, VISIBLE, AND WATER VAPOR)
11905520IR
11905520
11905520WV
CIMSS WIND SHEAR MAP
wm7shr
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
Based on analysis of the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, ICON, and JMA models, the GFS is the only one showing development of  a low pressure system from the wave of interest.
GFS MSLP ANOMALY (96 HOURS)
gfs_mslp_sig_atlantic_96
Both the GFS and ECMWF show a somewhat favorable pattern as far as shear during the next 96 – 120 hours, then the pattern deteriorates and if anything has developed, will run into shear north of the islands.  Both models also show ample moisture and PWAT during this time, and thereafter, any “system” that may be out there, will begin to run into dry air to its west.
ECMWF AND GFS WIND SHEAR 96 HOURS
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-0219200
gfs_dl_shear_atlantic_96
The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast has decreased the probability of a tropical depression during the next 4 – 5 days.
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_96
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_120
Based on the update information, I concur at the moment with the NHC in that we may see some slow development from the wave off Africa.  However, how much and how strong remains to be seen.

Based on analysis of the JMAN (Japanese) and BOM (Australian) MJO phase space diagram models, the forecast still calls for the MJO to continue to move through phase 2.
JMAN AND BOM MJO PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
JMAN
BOM
mjo_rmm.daily.20220805

I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-07 22:28:25

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