August 20, 2022

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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…ISSUED AUG. 06, 2022…10:20 A. M. EDT

5 min read

Disclaimer:  This site is not affiliated with the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Hunters, Storm Prediction Center, or National Weather Service.  ALL forecasts herein are the result of my analysis, (to which you will see me at times, insert excerpts from various agencies due to the nature of the importance of the information) and I am solely responsible for the content.  As ALWAYS, follow the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, and your local Emergency Management officials for emergency decisions.  In addition, this is strictly a FORECAST OFFICE.  I CANNOT make decisions regarding travel plans, etc.  My purpose, is to provide you the information, based solely on information I analyze, and the accuracy of the information at hand of the time of analysis, so you may make informed decisions.
(T. F. “Storm” Walsh)

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Please be aware, even though I do not post every night, rest assured I am continuously monitoring various areas for any significant weather. 

I will reiterate, my forecasts are based on the available information at the time of analysis, and are only as accurate as the information analyzed and the solutions provided.

For severe weather forecasts, please use the SPC link below to stay updated on any severe weather threat.
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HOME LINK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/classic.html

Good morning everyone!

I wanted to make known again, I will be on vacation during the “peak” of the hurricane season (AUG. 29 – SEP 09), on an Alaskan cruise.  I will not have the capability to update during that time.  Please refer to the NHC.  You’ll note various links underneath the header/banner on the page such as the National Hurricane Center, Active Watches and Warnings NWS Hazard and Warnings Display, Satellite and Radar Page (etc.)  These are linked to their respective sites and should provide you with ample information.

IF anyone would like hurricane preparedness information, and information on pet friendly shelters, please email me with the subject line HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS.

STORM W 2022 HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 18 – 20
TOTAL HURRICANES :        7 – 9
MAJOR HURRICANES:        4 – 6

AVERAGE HURRICANE SEASON
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 14
TOTAL HURRICANES:         7
MAJOR HURRICANES:        3

2022 SEASON TOTALS
TOTAL NAMED STORMS: 3
TOTAL HURRICANES:       0
MAJOR HURRICANES:      0

U. S. LANDFALLS: 0

The following are the storm names for the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season:
Alex Bonnie Colin Danielle Earl Fiona Gaston Hermine Ian Julia Karl
Lisa Martin Nicole Owen Paula Richard Shary Tobias Virginie Walter

As a system becomes named, I will change the color of that name to red, as to indicate which names have been used this season.

2022 HURRICANE SEASON SUPPLEMENTAL NAME LIST:
Adria Braylen Caridad Deshawn Emery Foster Gemma Heath Isla Jacobus
Kenzie Lucio Makayla Nolan Orlando Pax Ronin Sophie Tayshaun Vivian Will

The Tropical Atlantic is beginning to wake up.  Satellite imagery this morning still indicates notable counterclockwise rotation, just south of the Cape Verde islands.  I had noticed this yesterday as I was canning through some forecast parameters on my lunch break.  The NHC has issued a LOW (20%) probability for development during the next 5 days, however it appears the are looking at the area of convection behind this spin-up, as they mention in their 5 day outlook, a wave is supposed to exit the coast later this weekend.
WEATHERNERDS EATL SATELLITE LOOP (INFRARED, VISIBLE, AND WATER VAPOR)
21524946ir
21524946
21524946wv
CLOSEUP AFRICASAT (TROPICAL WAVE OVER AFRICA)
sat_20220806_1215_animation
NHC 5 DAY GTWO (LINKED)
two_atl_5d1
The only thing I can come up with looking at this is, the wave over Africa may catch up to the area of vorticity south of the Cape Verde islands and consolidate.  It is noted that the wave over Africa does have westward movement, and the area south of Cape Verde has been pretty much quasi-stationary.  However, the strongest vorticity is only indicated at the mid levels with the area south of Cape Verde.
CIMSS 700 MB AND 500 MB VORTICITY
wm7vor3
wm7vor2
Regardless of which area is targeted, analysis of forecast conditions over the MDR indicate that conditions become more favorable in about 96 hours from 06Z this morning (give or take 12 hours) for slow development to occur.  Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate low pressure to develop, with the GFS being the quicker of the two.  So, bearing in mind the timestamps in the model graphics, BOTH models indicate the forecast of ample moisture in the relative humidity forecast up through the mid levels (minimum of 60% RH required), high PWAT (Precipitable Water) values, and a favorable, radial wind shear pattern over the center of the supposed low pressure area (not to be confused with 200 mb radial outflow pattern).  The 200 mb streamline forecast does however indicate a diffluent upper pattern.
ECMWF AND GFS MSLP NORMALIZED ANOMALY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-mslp_norm_anom-0284000
gfs_mslp_sig_eastmdr_96
ECMWF AND GFS MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-rh500-0284000
gfs_rh700_400_atlantic_96
ECMWF AND GFS PWAT FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-pwat-0284000
gfs-deterministic-catl-pwat-0197600
ECMWF AND GFS SHEAR FORECAST
ecmwf-deterministic-catl-shear_850v200-0284000
gfs_dl_shear_eastmdr_96
The ECMWF EPS cyclone formation probability forecast has increased the probability of a tropical depression during the next 4 – 6 days
ECMWF EPS CYCLONE FORMATION PROBABILITY FORECAST
eps_tropcyc_prob_20_atlantic_144
Based on my analysis of the forecast parameters, IF they come to fruition and remain, we should see an INVEST designation  in a few days, and quite possibly a tropical depression.  It appears the return to activity is playing inline with the update CHI200 anomalies and MJO forecast, which indicates a phase 2 pattern in about 4 days.
JMA CHI200 ANOMALIES FORECAST UPDATE 06 – 12 AUG
jma.1
13 – 19 AUG
jma.2
20 AUG – SEP 02
jma.3
JMA AND BOM PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM FORECAST
JMAN
BOMM_BC
I will continue to monitor everything for any significant changes over the tropics, and will update when able.

Elsewhere, I do not expect Tropical Storm formation during the next 5 days.

You may direct any questions by contacting me personally, ANYTIME, at: twalsh22000@yahoo.com

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST /SEVERE WEATHER SPECIALIST

palmharborforecastcenter

2022-08-06 14:15:30

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